By Byron York
Chief political correspondent 2/9/09 4:09 pm
Most reporting on the stimulus is based on the assumption that, since there is now a deal in the Senate, the bill will ultimately pass. That is still the most likely possibility, given the big Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. But it could still be a squeaker — and it could still fail.
Here’s the situation. There are 58 Democratic senators. (There would be 59 if they had Al Franken, but they don’t.) There are 41 Republicans. (There would be 42 if they had Norm Coleman, but they don’t.) Sixty are needed to stop a filibuster. The current Senate bill has the support of three Republicans: Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Arlen Specter. So with the support of all 58 Democrats, there are a total of 61 votes to move the stimulus bill forward. I’m told that all three Republicans are unchangeably committed to voting in favor of moving the bill forward this evening.
But here is the hitch. The bill will of course then go on to the House-Senate conference. I am told that when the (changed) stimulus bill returns to the Senate from conference, almost certainly with more spending than is in the current Senate version, it will have to pass a second 60-vote hurdle. So what happens if House-added spending causes one or more of the three Republican supporters to withdraw support? It’s not inconceivable; to various degrees, the three GOP senators premised their support of the current Senate bill on the fact that it contains less spending and more tax cuts than the House version. If one of those GOP senators were to withdraw, the bill’s supporters would then have 60 votes — the bare minimum for moving the bill forward. If two Republicans were to withdraw, the bill would fall short. And if Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy were not in good enough health to cast a vote, Democrats would need all three Republicans. (I’m told that Kennedy traveled to Washington today for the purpose of voting.) In any event, it is possible that the stimulus will move forward by the barest of margins and could still, conceivably, not move forward to final passage at all. -Byron York
