The major 2016 presidential candidates are likely to agree on one issue: Opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. The proposal has come under withering fire from Democratic and GOP candidates, creating a new sense of urgency among its business supporters to get it approved by Congress before its main backer, President Obama, leaves office.
The deal’s fans are not panicking — yet. Congress’ passage of Trade Promotion Authority legislation last year means the Senate cannot filibuster the 12-nation trade pact or similar trade proposals. So the backers are still optimistic that Congress will pass it.
But the time for Congress to act is slipping away. The deal’s unpopularity has prompted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to say he will not bring it up until after the November election. That would leave just a few weeks during the lame-duck session for lawmakers to pass it before a new, potentially anti-trade administration, takes over.
“The real issue is that there will be very few legislative days left on the calendar,” said a source with a business trade association pushing for the deal who requested anonymity. “You’ve got a very narrow window after the election.”
If the current Congress cannot get it done in time, the next administration would have to re-submit it, and it is not clear that whoever takes over in the Oval Office would want to do that.
The pact would lower trade barriers among the U.S. and 11 other Pacific Rim nations. Obama has argued it will be an economic boon by boosting exports and giving the U.S. a leg up over China, which is not included in the deal.
The proposal has drawn fire from the Left, particularly from organized labor and environmental groups that argue it would allow foreign companies to trample U.S. regulations and make it easier for domestic companies to outsource.
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, who supported the trade deal while she was Obama’s secretary of state, now says the deal’s terms are so bad she has to oppose it. Her rival, Bernie Sanders, is even more forceful in his denunciations.
Meanwhile, GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump has called it a “terrible one-sided deal that … enriches other countries at our expense.” Ted Cruz, once a supporter, now says he will vote against it. Marco Rubio, who also once favored the deal, has hedged recently, telling the Tampa Bay Times last month that he is “still reviewing” its terms. His campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
The only remaining major party candidate on the record backing it is John Kasich, who is polling in the single digits in the GOP race.
That means the presidential race in the fall likely will feature at least one candidate denouncing the deal and another one either echoing that criticism or leaving it unrebutted. Either way, it will further dampen Congress’ interest in working on it.
“Opposition by Democratic and GOP presidential candidates to the TPP mirrors U.S. public opinion against the pact across the political spectrum, which is why there is not a majority to pass the TPP in Congress and the deal’s fate is at best uncertain,” said Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s global trade watch program.
Trade fans point out that the Left said similar things last year about Trade Promotion Authority before Congress approved that legislation. And by moving the Senate vote to a lame-duck session, McConnell, who needs only 50 votes, has made it easier for wavering lawmakers who may be facing tough re-election battles.
However, the deal has had numerous delays. The administration had initially hoped to have a vote by the end of last year, before campaign season kicked into high gear. And TPA, which passed the House only by a narrow 10-vote margin, was an easier vote for lawmakers since it was an alteration of Congress’ rules for considering trade deals, not a deal itself. Even some normally pro-trade Republicans have expressed reservations about the deal.
“What we’ll be watching closely is what Sen. Orrin Hatch has to say,” the trade association source said. Hatch is chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction, and he said last year that the deal might need to be renegotiated.
“I am very concerned that, particularly with regard to intellectual property, the administration may not have gotten the best deal possible,” Hatch said at a Chamber of Commerce forum in November.
The administration is limited in how it can tweak the deal to address his and other lawmakers’ concerns since that would involve unraveling details in agreements negotiated with 11 other countries. U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman has ruled out renegotiating any parts.
Rob Scott, trade policy expert with the liberal Economic Policy Institute, notes that under previous administrations, the business lobby usually won trade policy fights. Lawmakers, including Democrats, would make a show of expressing concern “and they’d end up signing the deal.”
Nevertheless, Scott thinks the election’s swing toward blue-collar economic populism shows just how much the ground has shifted. “We are living in a different era.”
