Two influential polling analysts are giving the Republican Party a better chance of retaking the Senate in 2014, and the shifting Colorado Senate race is a major factor.
538’s Nate Silver wrote Friday that Republicans have a 58 percent chance of gaining a Senate majority in November.
Silver dove into Colorado polling data to deliver a “credible hypothesis” that the Republican candidate, Rep. Cory Gardner, may be “slightly” favored over Democratic Sen. Mark Udall when the candidates’ political ad spending is equal.
Meanwhile, the New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote Friday that Republicans have a 61 percent chance of retaking Congress’ upper chamber. Cohn said Republicans have a credible path to a majority if they can win Alaska and Colorado.
Colorado Democrats point to President Obama’s underwater approval ratings as one reason for Gardner’s rise.
“There’s a little dissatisfaction with Obama that translates down the Democratic ticket,” former Democratic state Senate minority leader Mike Feeley told The Hill’s Alexandra Jaffe. “I think Udall is trying to overcome that.”
Gardner leads Udall by nearly one percentage point in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
