Seventy-six is the GOP’s new lucky number.
After months of campaigns, forecasts and polls, FiveThirtyEight super-analyst Nate Silver’s final update gives Republicans a 76 percent chance of taking control of the Senate from Democrats.
However, Election Day may not be when Republicans officially gain control of the Senate. The chance of runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana, and the potential of Kansas electing independent Greg Orman — who would be able to choose which party to caucus with — leaves the possibility of months of uncertainty.
Silver’s forecast thus refers to the probability that the GOP will have control by the time the new Senate convenes in January.
Republicans have been inching closer to victory this election cycle, after failing to win control of the Senate in both 2010 and 2012. FiveThirtyEight has listed them as modest favorites all year due to the low national favorability of President Obama.
The fight for Senate control will be decided in eight states: Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight.
