Marco Rubio’s opponents have been searching for a flaw in his ascendant campaign, and they think they’ve found it: a supposedly subpar field operation for getting out the vote.
The Florida senator has executed among the more strategic, disciplined, and at least to this point, successful campaigns of the 2016 presidential cycle. There are legitimate concerns about the strength of the Republican’s voter turnout operation, and whether it can compete with his rivals in Iowa on Feb. 1 and in the three early voting states that follow. But Rubio’s organization doesn’t appear as unprepared for the coming ground war as his opponents had hoped.
That positive assessment was shared with the Washington Examiner this week during multiple interviews with GOP Insiders in Iowa and other states, including Rubio supporters and neutral players. Tom Mitchell, a member of the Woodbury County GOP executive committee, told the Examiner in late October during an interview in conservative Sioux City that he believed Rubio’s Iowa field operation wasn’t receiving due credit. Mitchell, who hasn’t endorsed in the primary, said his opinion hasn’t changed.
“There are certainly other campaigns that are better organized, but he’s certainly not very far behind in that regard. People that think that are underestimating him,” Mitchell said Thursday, when reached by telephone. “He’s got some good people that he’s hired on the ground, but also some strong people that have endorsed him.”
Rubio, 44, has propelled himself into the top tier of a crowded Republican primary through sharp communicating, winning debate performances, deep knowledge of foreign and domestic policy and adroit campaign strategy. He runs anywhere from second to fourth in a group of top contenders that includes polling front-runner Donald Trump, the New York billionaire and reality television star, retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
Cruz has assembled a formidable organization, scooping up endorsements, like Iowa social conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats, and signing campaign volunteers to work in each county in the first four states. Cruz has aggressively promoted this information, creating the impression that has outflanked the field on the ground, particularly in Iowa. That includes operations built by Carson, and Trump, whose outreach to new voters isn’t being dismissed because it’s being run by caucus guru Chuck Laudner.
In Iowa, even some Rubio supporters concede that Cruz is winning the ground war. Anxiety about possible Rubio deficiencies appeared to evolve from whispers to four-alarm fire this week, as some Iowa GOP insiders who are rooting for Rubio complained to National Review Online that he was squandering his opportunity to finish strong there. It’s a narrative that Rubio’s chief rivals are pushing eagerly.
“Rubio, organizationally, is way behind everyone else,” argued Steve Deace, an influential talk radio host in Iowa who endorsed Cruz and is advising his campaign. “He doesn’t have an organization that can win a caucus, or can finish in the top three in a caucus.”
Not everyone agrees. Some senior Iowa Republicans predicted to the Examiner that Rubio was poised to surprise the naysayers. They chocked up the negative reviews of his ground game both to opponents who are naturally looking to blunt his momentum — and his campaign’s strategic decision not to broadcast every tactical advance it achieves.
“The campaign is getting ready to release a list of supporters,” said an Iowa Republican backing Rubio. “I think people are going to be surprised — at least Iowa people will be surprised — by who’s on this team.”
“Rubio has a stronger team than people know,” added a Hawkeye State Republican insider who is neutral and requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “I travel around the state a lot; I see his people at those meetings. For some reason, the Rubio camp just hasn’t announced who they are yet.”
The Rubio campaign as a general practice doesn’t indulge reporters who are working on “process” stories and prefers to keep the spotlight focused on the senator and his message. Rubio’s team has been obsessed with timing, and positioning the Floridian to peak just as voters are making their final decision on whom to support. So it would fit with campaign strategy if it turns out that an imposing get-out-the-vote operation was taking shape under the radar.
The campaign’s approach to the first four nominating states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — is to compete in all of them equally and not prioritize one over the other. Rubio supporters say this explains why the senator hasn’t necessarily campaigned in individual early states as much as his competitors, whether Cruz in Iowa, or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in New Hampshire.
Those states will see more of Rubio as the first caucuses and the primaries draw closer.
But the Rubio campaign is banking that this global strategy projects strength and makes him more competitive. The campaign, which has prided itself on running a lean shop, now numbers approximately 100 paid staff, up from around 40 to 50 a few months ago. Personnel, based in campaign headquarters in Washington and spread across important primary states, are likely to grow. Rubio supporters are confident that campaign ground operations will produce results.
In New Hampshire, team Rubio just upgraded from a 2,500 square foot headquarters to 10,000 square feet. Last week, campaign volunteers knocked on 4,000 doors; last month, 125 volunteers walked precincts in all 10 counties. The campaign regularly holds intensive grassroots training sessions as part of a strategy to keep expenses low by creating a network of experienced volunteers. There are seven fulltime paid staff — and growing — on the campaign’s payroll in the Granite State.
Jim Merrill, who guided Mitt Romney to victory there in the 2012 GOP primary, is running the show.
“Merrill is indeed one of the most talented Republican operatives in New Hampshire, and he has assembled a strong, capable team on the ground,” said a Republican operative there who plans to vote for Rubio. “The biggest hurdle Rubio faces here is his lack of attention to the Granite State. He has had less face time with voters than other candidates who have been here much more frequently and as a result, he is behind in endorsements and grassroots enthusiasm in comparison.”
In South Carolina, Rubio should be positioned to take advantage of opportunity. Some of his senior advisors, including campaign manager Terry Sullivan, hail from the Palmetto State and are veterans of former Sen. Jim DeMint’s political operation. Nevada is the one state where Rubio might possibly be lapping the competition. The Silver State holds a caucus, and Rubio’s team has probably been the most active on the ground organizing and contacting voters.
The Rubio campaign has two campaign offices in the state, one in the north, one in the south, that are staffed daily with phone bank callers. His team started holding caucus-training sessions in mid October, and at least one is held everyday. Rubio’s big name surrogates include Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison, who is heavily involved, former Gov. Bob List, and just this week, prominent Hispanic political activist Fernando Romero, who had been supporting Bush.
“This is a very real organization on the ground,” said a political operative in the state who is supporting Rubio.
