Doug Jones Earns the Upset Win in Alabama

10:53 p.m. Postmortem: Doug Jones will be the next senator from Alabama.This story has a lot of policy implications, but it also has huge implications for 2018 and the battle for control of the upper chamber. If Republicans had held Alabama, Democrats would have had to defend every one of their seats (some of which are in very red states) while winning Nevada and Arizona plus Tennessee, Texas or some other very red state.But Jones’s victory removes the need for them to win Texas, Tennessee or some other very red state.They need to retain their current seats and win a few states that, in a good Democratic year, should be within reach. Jones’s win in Alabama means that Democrats don’t need to win Tennessee or Texas –making their path to the majority much easier.—David Byler

10:34 p.m. Senator Doug Jones: The AP, Fox News, and other outlets are now calling the race for Democrat Doug Jones. After showing a lead for Steve Moore early, the Internet-famous New York Times Needle shifted to Moore and stayed there the rest of the night. As of this writing, Jones is leading Moore by 10,000 or so votes, and 20,000 voters, a la Republican senator Richard Shelby, opted for a write-in candidate. We’ll have more comprehensive coverage soon.—Rachael Larimore

10:18 p.m. Too close to call for now: As Moore and Jones come down the stretch neck-and-neck, the 1.5 percent of write-in votes may have the potential to play spoiler for the Republican. But it’s worth pointing out that that that 1.5 percent is likely less representative of Republican dissatisfaction with their candidate than it would be in a typical election. Jones/Moore is the only race on the ballot—there are no local elections and no ballot initiatives. So a voter dissatisfied with his options in the Senate race has even less incentive than usual to get to the polls.—Andrew Egger

9:47 p.m. In mid-November, the Washington Post report detailing Moore’s alleged pursuit of sexual and romantic relationships with teenage girls triggered a wave of GOP condemnations. If the embattled candidate wins, Republican lawmakers are prepared to meet Wednesday and discuss next steps, CNN reported Tuesday.

Among lawmakers’ options: expulsion, an ethics probe, and, if possible, preventing Moore from conferencing with the GOP.

National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Cory Gardner led the call in mid-November for the Senate to vote on expelling Moore should he win. An expulsion would require a two-thirds vote, or 67 members.

That means 19 Republicans would need to vote to expel him, in addition to all 48 Democrats and Independents. But Republicans aren’t all on the same page—some have avoided denouncing the candidate. A few others have refused to comment on a “hypothetical” Moore victory. Others have not explicitly called for expulsion, but after the Post report, urged Moore to “step aside” from the race.

A potential expulsion vote would likely occur after a Senate Ethics Committee probe.

Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell has said that Moore will “immediately” face an ethics investigation if he wins. “The committee would take a look at the situation and give us advice,” he said earlier in December.

McConnell told reporters Tuesday that sitting GOP senator Luther Strange will stay in the seat through the end of this year.

In addition to an ethics probe and potential expulsion, Republican leaders could refuse to give Moore committee assignments or let him into weekly closed-door lunches.

The president and Republican National Committee have thrown their support behind Moore, in a sharp divide with the NRSC. —Jenna Lifhits

9:35 p.m. Watching the results and feeling dizzy? So are we.

9:14 p.m. Setting the scene in Birmingham: The feel at Jones HQ in Birmingham is that of a presidential primary. Senate elections are big deals any time, but with (1) this being the only one going right now, (2) it attracting 15-over-2-seed upset potential, (3) Senate control in the balance, and (4) Roy Moore said what?, the stakes seem that much higher, the press tables are that much fuller, the cash bar is that much higher-priced, and the ambient hum in the room is that much noisier.

It’s still early in the evening, with the polls having closed just an hour ago, so the crowd is agog and talkative, rather than upbeat or nervous. There’s a single flat-screen TV outside the main ballroom where attendees are stirring with food and drink, but most are diverted and chatting, with only a few eyes truly glued to CNN.

That’s probably a good use of their time: As the ever-insightful Dave Wasserman notes on Twitter, the early returns feel like a “roller coaster,” favoring Jones one minute and Moore the next. At 8:05 local time, the “next” is right now. But no one seems to notice.—Chris Deaton

9 p.m. A horse is a horse with a Twitter account, of course: Roy Moore rode his horse to the polling station (see below) and the obligatory Twitter account has followed. No word if the horse got to vote in the election, but judging by his tweets, we would say he would have voted for Doug Jones.

Because of course.—Rachael Larimore

8:43 p.m. None of the above: One statistic to watch in this race is the number of third party and write-in votes. With a relatively liberal Democrat and a Republican who has been credibly accused of improper sexual contact with minors while he was in his 30s, it’s reasonable to imagine that some Alabamians wouldn’t show up or would cast a protest vote for write-in or independent candidates. So what would constitute a lot of votes for non-major-party candidates?

In the last five presidential elections, an average of 1.65 percent of the vote in Alabama has gone to third party candidates. In 1992, Ross Perot won 19 percent of the vote nationwide while only winning 11 percent in Alabama.

In other words, Alabama voters are more hostile to third parties and write-ins than voters in other states. I don’t know how many votes non-major party candidates will end up getting, but it’s worth keeping that 1.7 percent figure in mind as results roll in.–David Byler

8:37 p.m. What to watch for: Now that the returns are coming in we get to stop reading the entrails of exits and start looking at hard numbers. Here are some smart things to watch from Democratic pro Zach McCrary in Alabama:

In sum: To figure out if Jones has a shot at running the table, look at vote totals in Selma and Tuskegee, look to see if he’s got a respectable vote-share (upward of 35 percent) in Shelby County, and look at his percentage in the four urban centers. For Jones to win, he’s got to shoot the moon. —Jonathan V. Last

8:26 p.m. Undecideds for Moore: CNN is reporting that, according to exit polling, voters who made their decision in the last 10 days are breaking overwhelmingly for Roy Moore—much as undecideds broke for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

On the face of it, this might seem odd, given that the word “undecideds” conjures up images of moderate or centrist voters. But late deciders are likely breaking to Moore for the same reason they broke for Trump—in both cases, the huge personal negatives had been public knowledge for months. A voter who didn’t swear Roy Moore off in November is unlikely to have a change of heart in December, after that much more time to justify a grudging vote for a candidate whose policies you like. –Andrew Egger

7:59 p.m. Almost time!: If you’re watching election night coverage tonight, you’ll probably see a lot of maps of Alabama that show how the vote is breaking down on the county level. And unless you live in Alabama or have spent a lot of time with political and demographic data, these maps will only be so helpful. Most people outside of Alabama don’t need to know where the large cities are, where the black voters are, which areas are and aren’t affluent, etc.

So I put together a few maps that might help out.

This map shows the total vote for Romney and Obama in 2012 added together. Larger circles represent areas where the 2012 electorate (the one that Moore faced last time he ran) is larger. The populous area in the middle corresponds to Birmingham (a key area for Jones), the smaller city in the northern part of the state is Huntsville and the southern city area is Mobile. In 2012, Moore underperformed Romney in larger metro areas, so it’s worth watching those regions.

This map shows the percentage of each county’s population that is black. Black voters are the bedrock of the Democratic Party both nationally and in the South. A strong black turnout coupled with defections from typically Republican, Moore-skeptical voters would do a lot to help Jones win this race.

This map shows the median income of people in each county. In 2012, Moore underperformed areas in more affluent, well-educated, whiter areas – which suggests that some upscale, typically conservative voters might decide not to vote or serve as a swing vote against Moore. Obviously we don’t know if that will happen this year, but together these maps sketch where some of those voters live and are helpful for understanding the election maps you’ll see on TV tonight.–David Byler

7:38 p.m. Looking to 2018: This election is obviously important—every senatorial election is, whether it’s competitive or not—but to fully understand why, it’s worth looking at the 2018 Senate map.

In 2018, Democrats will be defending seats in a huge number of red states—most notably North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Indiana and Missouri. If they win races in each of these seats while unseating Democratic Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada and winning an open seat in Arizona, they’ll still fall short of 51 seats. Given President Trump’s low approval rating (37.6 percent as of earlier today), that result is plausible.

I inputted Trump’s current approval rating into a simulator that Sean Trende and I built at RealClearPolitics. It suggested that, even if Trump remains unpopular, Democrats aren’t the favorites to retake the Senate.

I personally think the model understates both West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s chances of re-election. But the overall results suggest that a 50-50 split in the Senate is a completely plausible outcome. In some cases Democrats get to 51 by winning Texas or Tennessee (or get to 52 by winning both), but in most simulations they win 50 or fewer seats.

But if Jones wins in Alabama, they won’t have to reach nearly as far into red territory, and their chances of retaking the Senate improve substantially. –David Byler

7:04 p.m. Hammered time: The night is still young–the polls don’t close until 8 p.m. ET (7 CT)–but if this whole exercise has you reaching for a cocktail, here’s one that will let you stay in the spirit of the evening. From Delish, the Yellowhammer Slammer is a concoction of rum, vodka, amaretto, and fruit juice. Have at it.–Rachael Larimore

6:56 p.m. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. If you’re watching election coverage right now, you’re probably seeing some “early exit poll” numbers come out. Don’t pay too much attention to them.

Jason Linkins and Natalie Jackson wrote a great post about this over at the Huffington Post last year, and the bottom line is that the early wave of exit polls doesn’t have a great track record of calling races correctly. Early exits led some to believe that John Kerry would win the 2004 election based on the exit polls. Early exits also indicated that the Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s 2012 recall election would be close, but Walker ended up winning by a decent margin. And they underestimated both now-President Trump and Virginia Governor-elect Ralph Northam in 2016 and 2017, respectively (Linkins and Jackson go into greater detail on some of these examples in their piece).

Additionally results will start rolling in soon, so there’s no need to worry too much about what early exits say. We’ll know who the next senator from Alabama will be soon.–David Byler

6:50 p.m. Blame game: Just got the following email from a GOP consultant in the know on the Alabama senate race:

“The numbers I saw this past week showed the race basically even, although so much depends on what the GOP Partisan advantage actually is on election day, along with the age of the Electorate. The older it is, the better Roy Moore does. The numbers say that older voters voters are less moved by the story line dominating the race. They took one look at that victim with Gloria Allred, and they didn’t buy it.

So, the bottom line is that if the oldest voters break heavily for Moore and GOP’s registration advantage in the state doesn’t crater, there’s a good chance Moore will win comfortably, albeit not by huge amounts. If the opposite happens, you’re looking at Senator Doug Jones.

That said, If there’s anything voters hate more than mud in a race, it’s damned Yankees from Up North telling them what their views should be about said mud. I don’t think voters like telling pollsters they are supporting Ol’ Roy at this point and therefore, Moore likely performs slightly better than the polling indicates and he wins by a few points.

P.S. You can blame two people for the entire clusterf*** that has been the last five months: Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump. Mitch for pissing away $5 million attacking the only guy who could win easily in Mo Brooks, and Trump for endorsing Strange because he’s a tiny-handed little man who would rather endorse against his own political interest than someone who was mean to him (Brooks) in a primary a year ago. Trump and Mitch OWN this, either way. (Yes, you’re damn right I’m bitter.)–Mark Hemingway

6:45 p.m. Hot takeaways: The New York Times suggested there would be two lessons from a Roy Moore victory: “It would illustrate the enduring limitations of Democrats in the South and suggest that the tug of partisanship is a forbiddingly powerful force.”

I don’t buy either takeaway, based on Alabama’s demographics and politicos I’ve talked to in the state. One, Democrats’ limitations are exaggerated here. “Democrats have no real infrastructure in Alabama. Jones has to pretty much do it on his own,” Cameron Smith, a political columnist for AL.com and general counsel for the D.C.-based R Street Institute, told me recently. Look no further than Greg Sargent’s interview with Doug Jones strategist Joe Trippi, who claimed his team built “the biggest” turnout operation in Alabama’s history. “[B]ut it’s totally untested,” was the catch, Trippi said.

I go into further detail here. –Chris Deaton

6:20 p.m. Things that happen even in 2017. Here’s an interview that needs to be seen to be believed.

CNN’s Jake Tapper interviewed Roy Moore’s spokesman Ted Crockett tonight and asked Crockett about Moore’s (flatly unconstitutional and un-American) belief that Muslims should not be allowed to serve in office. Crockett claimed that Moore only said that because of the fact that it’s a requirement to take the oath of office on a Christian Bible. When Tapper informed him that’s not actually true, Moore’s spokesman was left literally speechless.

As TWS reported back in September, here’s what Moore has actually said about the matter:

Moore told reporters this fall he opposes religious tests, but he has never recanted his 2006 column arguing Muslims may not serve in Congress.

Another part of the Tapper interview zipping around Twitter is Crockett’s claim that Moore “probably” thinks homosexual acts ought to be illegal. Moore has actually consistently held this position, reiterating it as recently as September in a Washington Post interview. In a 2015 interview, Moore left some doubt about whether or not he supported the death penalty for homosexual acts, but he clarified in September 2017 that he opposes it:

—John McCormack

6:15 p.m. Read the tea leaves (or the maps): Roy Moore isn’t a stellar candidate. In 2012, he almost lost a race for Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court (he won by four points) while Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points. It’s unclear whether Jones will win tonight, but if he does he might start by trying to grab some of the voters that cast their ballot for Romney and Bob Vance, the Democrat who ran against Jones. To see how this might work, look at Romney’s win map.

Romney’s map makes sense. He lost the central stretch of the state where many black voters live, as well as Birmingham (the lone blue county in the middle of the state) while running up the margin almost everywhere else. Moore’s map is somewhat different:

Moore lost some counties that Romney won, and two factors – race and economics – explain most of the difference. Moore underperformed Romney in counties with more educated, affluent white voters and did about as well as him in many areas where there were a lot of black voters (because most black voters cast their ballot for both Obama and Vance).

I went into more detail about Moore’s 2012 race here, but the point is clear. One path to a Jones victory involves grabbing some of these affluent, typically Republican voters while still turning out enough reliably Democratic black voters. –David Byler

5:55 p.m. So much winning: If Roy Moore wins Tuesday’s special election, Donald Trump will claim victory. If Moore loses, Trump will be the first to remind us that he supported Moore’s opponent, Luther Strange, in the Republican primary.

“Carefully” isn’t a word associated with Trump often, but it is how the president has played the Alabama Senate race ever since the Washington Post first published in November the on-the-record accounts from four different women who claimed Moore, as an adult, had romantically pursued them while they were teenagers. One woman, Leigh Corfman, claimed Moore had molested her when she was 14 and he was 32. The initial accusations were all credible, even as Moore categorically denied them.

Trump was, at the time, abroad in Asia. For the most part the White House declined to weigh in other than to say that if they were true Moore should “step aside.” Trump maintained this position throughout his Asia trip and even after he returned to Washington. But soon enough, White House aides and those close to the president began signaling they might re-lend support. “Doug Jones in Alabama, folks, don’t be fooled,” senior adviser Kellyanne Conway said on Trump’s favorite show, Fox and Friends, on November 20. “He will be a vote against tax cuts. He is weak on crime. Weak on borders. He is strong on raising your taxes. He is terrible for property owners.”

A few days later, Trump all but endorsed Moore by casting doubt on the veracity of the allegations against the Alabama Republican. Then, on December 4, he tweeted out an undoubtable show of support for Moore. From then, it was off to the races, with the Republican National Committee recommitting money to the Alabama race, Trump rallying in Pensacola (just across the line from Alabama), and even cutting a last-minute robocall for Moore’s campaign.

Why the caution, the waffling, and then the full-throated endorsement? Trump’s view of the race changed as polls showed Moore seemed to be weathering the storm and remained the favorite to win. Trump’s one passion, as one person close to him describes it to me, is winning.—Mike Warren

5:38 p.m. Proxy war: As Alabamans go to the polls today, they have only one choice before them: Roy Moore or Doug Jones for Senate. But with the sexual misconduct allegations swirling so thickly around Moore, his campaign is striving to replace that decision with another one: a choice between Donald Trump and the liberal establishment that seeks to frustrate his agenda at every turn.

“You see, this is President Trump’s agenda. And that’s why it’s so important that Judge Moore win this race,” Moore’s chief political strategist Dean Young said on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. “This is Donald Trump on trial in Alabama.”

Moore’s surrogates are not the only ones characterizing the election as a proxy war. High-profile Democrats like former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick and Sen. Cory Booker have stumped for Jones in recent weeks, while Barack Obama has reportedly recorded a robocall for the Jones campaign. Meanwhile, the race has dominated national media coverage for weeks—partially due to the explosiveness of the allegations against Moore, partially because it’s the only race to cover this month.—Andrew Egger

5:32 p.m. Giddyup to the polls: Yes, yes, Roy Moore did ride his horse to the polling station. In case you were wondering.—Rachael Larimore

5:23 p.m. A house divided: Moore’s candidacy has dragged the sins, cynicism, and inner divisions of the Republican party into a new light. Sticking to inner divisions, though: It’s pitted the Republican National Committee, which withdrew and then reinstated its funding for Moore’s campaign, against the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which, its chairman Colorado senator told Jenna Lifhits last week, will “never endorse Roy Moore.” Gardner, at the time, had already led the call for Moore to be expelled if he wins. The RNC resumed its support for Moore following the president’s endorsement and gains in the polls for the serial predator. Most, but not all, RNC members TWS reached for comment supported the party’s choice. Mississippi committeeman Henry Barbour condemned the candidate’s credibly reported actions as disqualifying, and New Jersey committeeman Bill Palatucci condemned the RNC for finding otherwise. Former Nebraska committeewoman Joyce Simmons resigned in protest Monday. Tennessee committeeman Oscar Brock said she shouldn’t have: The party needs its most principled members, now more than ever. So does the U.S. Senate. Shortly following the first wave of accusations from Moore’s victims, Senate Republicans strove to distance themselves from his toxic candidacy—with the still silent exception of Rand Paul, an early Moore endorser. (TWS tracked Senators’ stances here.) If he wins tonight, an ethics investigation may well lead to a vote on his removal from the upper chamber. It would be the first such vote in U.S. history.—Alice Lloyd

5:12 p.m. What do the polls say? “Reply hazy try again”: In some elections, polls make it easy to see which candidate is going to win. This isn’t one of those elections. The RealClearPolitics average puts Moore ahead by 2.2 points, but there’s a huge range and a lot of uncertainty. Yesterday, Fox News published a poll showing Jones ahead by ten points, and Emerson recently released a poll that showed Moore ahead by nine. The disagreement between the polls doesn’t boil down to the simple randomness inherent in survey research. It’s unclear exactly who is going to show up to an off-year mid-December Senate race, so pollsters are making different estimates of the size and shape of the electorate – and those estimates lead to different final results. Moreover, not all polls use the same methods (e.g. whether the responding is talking to a live person or a recording, if cell phones are called, etc.). And while some polls with better track records and methodologies favor Jones, Ariel Edwards-Levy has correctly pointed out that a poll with sound methodology isn’t guaranteed to correctly predict the final result. In other words, it’s hard to predict who will win based on the polls alone.—David Byler

Pregame: THE WEEKLY STANDARD has been covering the campaign in-depth since Moore, the former chief justice of the state Supreme Court who was twice removed from the bench for failing to heed federal court orders, defeated Luther Strange in the primary to run for Jeff Sessions’ seat.

Chris Deaton, who has been on the ground in Alabama for the last week, has detailed Doug Jones’ aggressive strategy, examined Steve Bannon’s role as a Moore surrogate, met with Roy Moore voters, and suggests that the state’s bitter cultural divides will play a role in the outcome. Additonally, John McCormack dropped in on the Moore campaign and found a bunker mentality and war on the press.