On Tuesday, Illinois’ incumbent Republican governor, Bruce Rauner, barely won renomination for his 2018 re-election bid. He defeated Jeanne Ives, a state legislator who was challenging him from the right, by only three points in the state’s primary. That’s not a great showing for Rauner – incumbent governors almost always win renomination, and they often do so without much trouble from their own party. But Rauner is arguably much weaker than the average sitting governor, and the close call is just the latest sign that his re-election may have some issues.
Rauner has two problems: competence and ideology.
The easiest way to describe Rauner’s competence problem is to compare him with another blue state GOP governor, Charlie Baker of Massachusetts. Baker is, like Rauner, liberal on various social issues. But Baker projects a sort low-key wonkishness and has benefited from a strong statewide economy. That’s allowed him to earn crossover votes and maintain high approval ratings in a deep blue state. Rauner, on the other hand, spent more than two years struggling to pass a budget and saw his approval numbers crater in the process. Blue-state Republicans can sometimes stay popular if they govern competently. But, according to recent polling, many Illinois voters don’t believe that Rauner has governed well – and that’s a problem for him.
Rauner also has an ideology problem. In 2014, he won the governorship in party by saying he had “no social agenda.” But, when a law that expanded taxpayer-subsidized abortions came across his desk, he signed it. His left turn on abortion, his failure to succeed fiscally and his distance from President Trump all created room for Ives (an imperfect candidate herself) to nearly oust him.
These problems seemed to manifest themselves in the election results. He had significant problems in the southeastern portion of the state (home to many evangelical Christians) and performed worse than expected in the suburban “collar” counties that surround Chicago. He managed to make up for those deficits by performing well in other portions of the state, but his overall performance on Tuesday showed some signs of weakness.
That being said, his vote pattern (according to incomplete results gathered late Tuesday night) didn’t neatly follow that of any recent GOP presidential candidate (e.g., Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, etc.) or even his own results from 2014. And the typically powerful demographic variables (education, income, race, etc.) didn’t do a great job of explaining the results either. So if Rauner wants to put the party back together again, his approach might look slightly different than that of past Republicans.
But whether or not Rauner can reunite the Illinois GOP, his overall unpopularity poses a big problem for him in November. He still sits in what I call the “unpopular zone” of this year’s gubernatorial contests.
This graphic (originally published here) shows the approval rating of sitting governors (vertical position), how the state voted in the 2016 election (horizontal position), how many voters cast their ballot for Clinton or Trump in 2016 (size) and what party currently controls the seat (color). Rauner is in the large group in the lower portion of the graphic—races where a replacement-level incumbent would likely improve the party’s chances of holding the seat.
And that sums up Rauner’s position reasonably well. He’s an unpopular incumbent in unfriendly territory, and he’s probably in a worse position than any other GOP governor running for re-election in 2018. His biggest advantage is that he’s running against J.B. Pritzker – a wealthy Democrat who has his fair share of baggage. And it’s possible that some swing-y or Democratic Illinois voters see Rauner as the least bad option and cast their ballots for him. But right now the sum of the evidence points toward this race at least leaning Democratic.
