Stringent ozone pollution standards proposed by the Obama administration could reduce gross domestic product $140 billion annually, totaling $1.7 trillion in lost activity between 2017 and 2040, the National Association of Manufacturers said in an updated version of its study.
The NERA Economic Consulting study said the regulation would result in 1.4 million fewer jobs through 2040 and reduce household income $830 per year.
“Manufacturers in the United States are in the midst of a resurgence that’s fueling job growth and economic recovery nationwide, but the proposed tightening of the ozone standard puts our momentum at great risk,” association President Jay Timmons said. “This data confirms our long-held concern that revisions to the ozone standard represent one of the most significant threats, not just to our manufacturing sector, but to our economy at large.”
The figure is less than the $270 billion annual and $3.4 trillion cumulative GDP hit the manufacturers group envisioned in a worst-case scenario study it released in July 2014. At the time, the trade group didn’t know what level of allowable ozone pollution the Environmental Protection Agency would suggest.
The EPA in November proposed lowering the ozone limit to between 65 and 70 parts per billion, down from 75 ppb. The proposal has become a top target for the chemicals, manufacturing and oil and gas industries.
Republicans haven’t ruled out devising a legislative solution to replace the EPA proposal. Some observers believe the White House might be willing to accept legislation on the issue. President Obama shelved plans for a stronger standard in 2011 after intense industry lobbying, and the EPA released the draft proposal, after years of delay, under court order.
The agency said it is heeding the advice of independent scientists who have advised the agency that current allowable ozone levels endanger the public health by exposing people to pollutants that have been linked to heart and respiratory ailments. Environmental and public health groups had pushed the EPA to go further by recommending a 60 ppb limit.
Industry groups are concerned that the regulation is too strict. Many counties have yet to comply with the current ozone regulations, and businesses and Republicans have said the EPA shouldn’t roll out a new standard until all counties can meet the current one. Opponents argue a tougher standard would throw dozens more counties into “nonattainment” zones, which is when ozone levels exceed the regulatory ceiling.
Nonattainment forces the formation of plans to reduce ozone pollution that detractors say increases operational hurdles for factories, power plants, fuel refineries and other big polluters. Businesses worry the updated standard would put a damper on permits needed to expand facilities.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated estimated cost per year of pollution standards in both the National Association of Manufacturers’ latest study and estimated worst-case scenario. The Washington Examiner regrets the error.
