DOYLESTOWN, Pa. — As five-term Senate incumbent Arlen Specter struggles in the Pennsylvania polls, his political survival in Tuesday’s too-close-to-call Democratic primary depends on how well he can get the vote out in Philadelphia and its suburbs.
The news isn’t good for Specter in western Pennsylvania. A new poll conducted in the state’s vast southwestern region shows Specter trailing his opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak, by 8 points.
Despite Specter’s effort to secure the passage of pro-union legislation and his years of steering hundreds of millions of dollars to the region, he has apparently failed to excite voters there. That means he need to run up the score in the east.
“It’s got to happen in the Philadelphia area for him, or it’s not going to happen,” said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc., which conducted the survey of western Pennsylvanians.
Specter is facing the greatest political challenge of his career from Sestak, a relative newcomer who has served in Congress for fewer than four years. Sestak is more liberal than Specter and is running hard against Specter’s recent decision to abandon the Republican Party and become a Democrat. Specter made the switch to ensure his own political survival but it could end his career because it has turned off so many voters, particularly those in the Philadelphia area, who have known him since his days as the city’s district attorney more than 40 years ago.
“That was so self-motivated,” said Nancy Schmoyer, a nurse in Bucks County, who has voted for Specter in past elections. “Who was he looking out for, his constituents or himself?
Sestak is also campaigning on an anti-Washington theme, labeling Specter as an insider despite the fact that he is also a member of Congress.
Sestak’s district covers the northwestern suburbs of Philadelphia. He’s expected to win his district, but the other suburbs, including affluent Bucks and Montgomery counties, are largely undecided and could decide Tuesday’s winner.
“This election is going to be won or lost in the city of Philadelphia and the suburban counties,” said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic political consultant based in Philadelphia.
Many voters outside Sestak’s district know very little about him, while Specter is a household name in the Philadelphia area.
With more than 600,000 residents, Bucks County, located northeast of Philadelphia, is one of the richest places in the nation and is nearly split among Democratic and Republican voters.
Voters here are also divided when it comes to Specter, with some condemning his party switch and others saying they have known him for so long that his party affiliation doesn’t matter anymore.
“He’s a principled individual and he’s beyond politics,” Specter supporter Christine Hale, 65, a retired teacher from Solebury Township, explained one afternoon as she loaded up her car in front of the Sears in Doylestown, the county seat.
Other Bucks County residents are less forgiving and see Specter’s party switch as a sign it might be time for him to move on.
“A breath of fresh air,” is how Chris Stanton, a photographer from New Hope, described Sestak, though he says he knows little about Sestak or his record and is thus undecided.
Specter’s party switch, Stanton said, disturbs him. “It makes him an excellent politician. He’s such a great politician it almost scares me.”
Specter’s support is much more solid in Philadelphia than in the suburbs, “but Philadelphia voters don’t usually turn out for primaries,” Ceisler said.
