Harvard’s Institute of Politics released the 28th edition of its national poll of young Americans Thursday and the results spell trouble for the Republican Party.
The survey of more than 2,000 young adults, ages 18 to 29, found that the percentage of millennials who prefer to see a Republican win back the presidency is trending downward. While 40 percent of youth voters backed a GOP candidate six months ago, according to previous polling data, that number has now dropped to 36 percent.
Even more worrisome for Republicans is the 13-point jump in the percentage of independent millennials who now prefer to see Democrats maintain control of the White House next November.
Nevertheless, the decline in support for Republicans has yet to translate into an overall boost in support for Democrats. Fifty-six percent of millennial respondents now prefer a Democratic presidential candidate, showing virtually no change since the age group was last surveyed in Spring 2015.
When it comes to the 2016 horse race, Donald Trump’s status as the Republican front-runner is also true among right-leaning millennials – 22 percent support the self-funded billionaire while 20 percent back retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. It is worth noting that the survey was conducted from Oct. 3-Nov. 9, long before Carson began slipping in national and early primary state polls and Trump released his controversial proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S.
On the Democratic side, the survey shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has mesmerized left-leaning millennials. The socialist senator has gone from 1 percent support in the Spring 2015 survey to 41 percent, putting him 6 percentage points ahead of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton (35 percent). Less than 1 percent of respondents backed former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.
For the traditionally left-leaning demographic, Sanders’ “democratic socialist” identity appears to have little influence over young Democratic voters. Sixty-six percent of 18-to-29-year-old Democratic primary voters said the description makes “no difference” in their decision to back him and nearly one-quarter said it makes them “more likely” to cast a vote for the Vermont senator.
If both parties wish to attract young voters, they’ll need to nominate an authentic and levelheaded candidate, the survey shows.
The top three attributes that millennials are seeking in both the Democratic and Republican 2016 contenders are integrity (51 percent), level-headedness (33 percent) and authenticity (26 percent). Only 18 percent of millennials cited political experience as valuable attribute to have in a presidential candidate.
Harvard’s latest survey of 2,011 millennial voters was commissioned by GfK and includes a margin of error plus or minus 2.8 percent.
