Renewable energy will quadruple over the next 20 years, but never come close to the market for fossil fuels, which will remain the dominant source of global energy in 2035, according to BP’s chief economist.
“Renewables is the fastest-growing resource,” Spencer Dale said Thursday. But despite the big boost in wind and solar, renewables “still provide less than 10 percent” of global energy, he said, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Dale is in Washington touting the company’s new 2016 energy forecast. Although renewable energy is projected to quadruple by 2035, at a significant 6.6 percent rate per year, it will reach only 9 percent of energy supply in that 20-year period, while fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix.
Fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy, comprising 60 percent of global energy growth over the next 20 years, which means 80 percent of energy will come from fossil fuels by 2035.
“Oil grows steadily,” said Dale, while coal demand will slow and natural gas will continue a strong surge upward.
“Gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel at 1.8 percent per annum, with its share in primary energy gradually increasing,” the forecast says. “Oil grows steadily at 0.9 percent … although the trend decline in its share continues.”
Dale also said the “the outlook for carbon emissions is changing rapidly relative to the past,” which accounts for the growth in renewables and the global climate change deal reached in Paris in December.
Carbon emissions will continue to fall, but not fast enough, he said. This means more government actions will be required to drive down emissions by putting a price on them.
Many scientists say the increase in carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is causing the Earth’s climate to change, resulting in more severe weather, drought and sea-level rise.
