Republicans may manage to find a way to fail in the most favorable political climate for their party since the New Deal Democratic majority got bounced out on its ration book in 1946.
But the signs for November continue to point to an absolute thrashing for the Democrats and, more surprising, a revitalization of Republicanism.
The dire warning from the rump of the old Republican Party was that insurgent candidates who embrace a purer, more liberty-minded form of conservatism would be a disaster.
The old GOP grandees who have never met an incumbent they didn’t like preached disaster, but so far, the small-government rebellion is doing more good than harm.
South Carolina was the first Deep South state to make the switch to the GOP, opting for Richard Nixon in 1968 while Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia went with segregationist George Wallace.
South Carolina’s move that year was no less racially motivated, but was at least more forward-looking than Wallace’s effort to force the Democratic Party to maintain its 140-year history of supporting state-sponsored racial segregation.
Change is again in the air in South Carolina.
Republicans there have nominated Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants as their gubernatorial candidate. They have also picked a black state legislator, Tim Scott, for a congressional seat over the son of Strom Thurmond, the 1948 segregationist candidate who later migrated with his state’s voters to the Republican Party.
Barring major developments, Scott and Haley, who would join Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal as the second Indian American governor, will cruise to victory this fall.
How strange to think that this time next year there may be no non-white Democratic governors — Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick’s re-election bid is still shaky and New York Gov. David Paterson is not running — and two non-white Republicans leading Deep South states.
In Haley and Scott’s victories, race was mostly irrelevant. While Barack Obama’s racial identity was a major selling point for Democratic voters, South Carolina Republicans seem to have been embracing conservatism, rather than diversity for its own sake.
Granted, lots of national Republicans jumped in to boost Scott over Paul Thurmond, but only after it was apparent that Scott would win. Those endorsements had as much to do with the national GOP wanting to appear racially cool as actually getting Scott elected.
Scott was elected in the same statewide wave that knocked out incumbent Republican Rep. Bob Inglis, a global warming believer who voted for the Bush bailout.
Haley appears to be a political juggernaut in her own right. The Mama Grizzly stamp of approval from Sarah Palin may have helped Haley survive the outrages of a dirty primary, but it seems pretty clear that Haley’s moxie is what got the job done. Haley has some of Palin’s sparkle on camera, but much more obvious depth on policy.
This year’s South Carolina primaries may have been the last battle in a war that his been raging between the more socially conservative, fiscally liberal Republicans establishment that grew out of the ashes of the Dixiecrat dream and a small-government insurgency.
Scott is a down-the-line conservative while Thurmond the younger is a “business-friendly” Republican, which means he isn’t opposed to government power as long as it is used to help his side.
If the Tea Party libertarianism coursing through the Republican Party is helping to break down the old racial divides in Southern politics, then it has already been a benefit to the GOP.
It’s still an open question how the other small-government insurgents will fare this fall in less reliably Republican states.
Florida’s Marco Rubio, Kentucky’s Rand Paul and Nevada’s Sharron Angle are all facing tough tests in their Senate bids. Their success or failure will depend on how badly damaged the Democratic brand is this fall and whether the outsiders are able to run credible campaigns.
Charlie Crist’s self-centered ideology, Nevada’s worst-in-the-nation unemployment and Kentucky’s wide ornery streak offer hope for all three. But losses in any of those races will prompt the Republican old guard to preach doom and gloom about the new wave of the party.
But if a loss or two is the cost for infusing some youth, color and enthusiasm into the GOP, many will say that it was worth the price.
Chris Stirewalt is the political editor of The Washington Examiner. He can be reached at [email protected].
