Jeb Bush’s chances of winning the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire look bleak in a new Bloomberg Politics/St. Anselm College poll released Wednesday.
Despite launching a half-million dollar ad buy in the earliest primary state in September, Bush, who dropped to sixth place in the latest Washington Examiner presidential power rankings, has seen a decline in virtually every category in the latest poll.
His 57 percent favorability among Republicans in the Granite State marks the worst it has been since polling began last November, and is lower than Ben Carson (74 percent), Marco Rubio (68 percent), Carly Fiorina (67 percent) and Donald Trump (58 percent).
The former Florida governor is also down to 10 percent support in the GOP field, putting him in third place behind outsider candidates Trump and Carson, who are polling at 24 percent and 17 percent, respectively. And only 6 percent of New Hampshire Republicans picked Bush as their second-choice candidate. Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio and Ted Cruz were all more popular backup choices.
Furthermore, Bush is tied with, or led by, Trump in four out of five categories that measured candidates’ authenticity, readiness to be president, ability to handle Russian President Vladimir Putin and care for everyday Americans. Thirty-one percent of respondents named Trump the most able to handle Putin while 13 percent named Bush, and Trump beat Bush 18 percent-6 percent as the candidate “who cares most about people like me.”
However, voters were more likely to identify Bush over Trump as the most conservative GOP hopeful. Thirteen percent of respondents said Bush leans furthest to the right and 10 percent said Trump. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a Tea Party favorite, dominated that category with 26 percent.
Two of Bush’s most controversial positions, his advocacy for a pathway to legal status for illegal immigrants and support for common core, were also more likely to negatively impact voters’ perception of him as opposed to going unnoticed. Fifty-three percent of voters said Bush’s stance on illegal immigration makes them less supportive of him (42 percent said it has no impact) and 49 percent said they’re less likely to support him because of his backing of Common Core.
Meanwhile, 87 percent of voters said Rubio’s age (44) didn’t bother them despite the fact he is young compared to the rest of the presidential field. And 68 percent of respondents said Carson’s opposition to a Muslim being president had no impact on their support. Nearly 75 percent of voters said Bush’s status as the brother and son of former Presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush does not affect whether or not they support him.
The poll of 400 likely voters in New Hampshire’s Republican primary was conducted between Oct. 15-18 and contains a margin of error plus or minus 4.9 percent.
