The outcome of two specific Senate races — involving incumbent Sens. Richard Burr, R-N.C., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis. — and the overall battle for control of the Senate will have major impacts on who sets the course on cybersecurity policy next year and may elevate a new set of key players.
The polls have been remarkably consistent, with Burr maintaining the slightest edge over Democrat Deborah Ross, Johnson trailing former Democratic Sen. Russell Feingold by around six points, and a Senate majority appearing to be just beyond the Democrats’ fingertips a week before the election.
Burr, the Senate Intelligence Committee chairman who was a key author of the Cybersecurity Act of 2015, held just a 1-point lead over Ross on Nov. 1, according to polling aggregation by RealClearPolitics. Ross is a former state legislator and director of the North Carolina American Civil Liberties Union.
Various polls conducted over the last week showed that race tied or with each candidate holding a several-point lead. Independent analysts Cook Political Report and Rothenberg-Gonzalez Political Report both still rate the race as a toss-up.
If Burr loses and Democrats win the Senate, the intelligence gavel would likely go to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., although she could also opt for the Judiciary chairmanship. On the Republican side, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho would be next in line in the event of a Burr loss.
In Wisconsin, Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chairman Johnson is still trailing Feingold in a race that features starkly different views on cyberpolicy. Johnson supported last year’s cyberbill while Feingold opposed it on privacy and civil liberties grounds.
Polling aggregation by RealClearPolitics showed Feingold with a 6.8 percentage point lead on Nov. 1 and both Cook and Rothenberg-Gonzalez see the race as leaning toward Feingold.
If Johnson loses to Feingold and Democrats win control of the Senate, Armed Services Chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., would be in line to become ranking Republican on homeland security. McCain can serve another term as chairman of Armed Services but would be prevented from serving another term as ranking member on that committee under Senate Republican Conference rules, so he would likely jump into the homeland security slot.
Sen. Tom Carper, D-Del., a key player on cyberissues over the past decade, could chair Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs if Democrats win the Senate, but he is also in line to chair the Environment and Public Works Committee under a Democratic majority.
In that case, Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., would be next in line to serve as chair of homeland security.
Looking at the overall race for control of the Senate, aggregations of current polling by RealClearPolitics.com showed Democrats on Nov. 1 with a net three-seat pickup. Republicans currently hold a 54-46 edge, and Democrats need a four-seat pickup to win control if Democrat Hillary Clinton wins the presidency.
But the turbulent presidential race will almost certainly have an impact on the Senate races, the nature of which remains to be seen in the coming days.
Charlie Mitchell is editor of InsideCybersecurity.com, an exclusive service covering cybersecurity policy from Inside Washington Publishers, and author of “Hacked: The Inside Story of America’s Struggle to Secure Cyberspace,” published by Rowman and Littlefield.
