On Tuesday, Mississippi Democratic Senate candidate Mike Espy’s campaign released an internal poll showing him in the lead in Mississippi’s upcoming Senate election. The headline might sound like good news for Democrats—every candidate obviously prefers to be ahead, and Mississippi is extremely red. But if you dig beneath the toplines, you’ll see that this poll isn’t a clear signal that Espy is doing well.
First, it’s an internal campaign poll and you should handle such data cautiously. The main goal of a campaign is not to provide clear readings of public opinion to the American people—it’s to help the candidate win. So skilled, talented pollsters might be privately getting numbers that accurately reflect the state of the race, but they’re likely going to publicly share only data that helps their candidate shape the narrative. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that (campaigns should try to help their candidate win), but it’s important to remember the campaign’s motivations when evaluating one of their polls.
Second, the toplines aren’t that great for Espy. The poll gives him about a third of the vote (34 percent) and gives two Republicans—Senate appointee Cindy Hyde-Smith (she’ll replace Sen. Thad Cochran, who is resigning due to health reasons, next week) and Tea Party favorite Chris McDaniel—27 percent and 21 percent of the vote, respectively.
A quick note for those who are unfamiliar with this race (skip this paragraph if you already know about this race’s runoff system) – usually elections are between one Republican, one Democrat, and maybe one or two weird third party candidates. But Mississippi’s special election starts off with an open nonpartisan primary. All Republicans and Democrats run on the same ballot, and if no candidate gets more than 50 percent the race heads to a runoff. So right now it makes sense to include multiple Democrats and Republicans in the same poll question.
That’s not a great percentage of the vote for Espy. He’ll likely gain steam as the campaign goes on, but in one-on-one presidential and Senate matchups, Democrats in Mississippi often get into the high 30 percent or mid-to-low 40 percentage range of support. He’s not quite there yet, and he would have to make sure he doesn’t get stuck in that range (as Mississippi Democrats often do—they win a huge majority of black voters while Republicans win a huge majority of white voters—which adds up to consistent GOP wins statewide) if he wants to win.
Maybe more importantly, the poll puts Hyde-Smith ahead of McDaniel. There are good reasons to believe that McDaniel is a weak general election candidate, and Espy would be less likely to prevail against Hyde-Smith in a runoff.
It’s important not to overinterpret one poll (especially when it’s an internal poll). The underlying dynamics that make Mississippi potentially competitive are still present. Chris McDaniel is still running, and he could make the runoff. Espy is an experienced candidate with a strong resume, and black voters might turn out strongly for him (he was Mississippi’s first African-American congressman since Reconstruction). And President Trump is still historically unpopular. But this poll isn’t the canary in the coal mine that many are watching for.
