Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee, the underdog candidate who is now surging in the polls, faces an uphill battle to win the GOP nomination even if he prevails in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus, political strategists say.
Huckabee now leads in Iowa, according to polling data, and some surveys rank him first or second nationally among GOP candidates.
An AP/Ipsos poll released Thursday placed Huckabee second in the polls — up from fourth place just a month ago — with 18 percent of the vote, behind Rudy Giuliani’s 26 percent.
But Huckabee is running a distant fourth in New Hampshire polls. And after the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8, analysts say, he lacks the money and campaign infrastructure to stay viable through “tsunami Tuesday” on Feb. 5, when Republicans will vote in 20 primaries.
Huckabee’s surge also has brought closer scrutiny of his record as governor of Arkansas, notably the release of a convicted rapist who went on to murder a Missouri woman and his response to a questionnaire in which he suggested that AIDS patients be quarantined and described homosexuality as an “aberrant, unnatural and sinful lifestyle.”
Assuming he withstands criticism from his rivals, “The question is if he were to win in Iowa whether that could create added excitement for him in New Hampshire,” Marist poll director Lee M. Miringoff said. “The answer is probably yes, but he still has a long way to go before he is a serious contender in New Hampshire.”
Other strategists view Huckabee’s rise in Iowa as a sunburst that could flame out once the former Baptist minister is outside the territory of religious conservatives.
“Huckabee would have to change his message dramatically from Iowa to New Hampshire,” said Craig Shirley, who has worked in GOP campaigns for three decades. “It would have to be more about economics, personal freedom and individuality. He shouldn’t go into New Hampshire wearing religion on his sleeve.”
Huckabee campaign consultant Dick Dresner said Huckabee does not plan to change his pitch to voters.
“So far we are riding a pretty good wave,” Dresner said. “If it takes us through Iowa, it will take us through New Hampshire and South Carolina also, and if that happens the money issue will take care of itself.”
Dresner said he is confident Huckabee can attract voters outside religious conservative areas. “I think he has a much broader appeal based on his personality,” Dresner said.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said the religious conservatism that is helping Huckabee in Iowa will probably keep him from winning the nomination in the end.
“He does not believe in evolution,” Sabato said. “I can guarantee you that will cost him a lot of votes.”
