The Tennesee primary is Thursday, and there are four serious GOP gubernatorial contenders: Rep. Diane Black; state Speaker Beth Harwell; Knoxville’s Randy Boyd, a multimillionaire businessman and a Department of Economic and Community Development commissioner; and Bill Lee, another successful businessman from the Nashville area.
Black and Boyd have been perceived as the top two contenders for most of the race and both campaigns have acted as if that’s the case. But while the two frontrunners launched flurrys of attack ads against each other, Lee was touring the state, touting his success and Christian values.
He was flying under the radar until a July 28 poll shocked observers by declaring Lee the frontrunner by six points While it was only one poll, and one done by a Louisiana polling firm not exactly known for its expertise in Tennessee politics, there’s a general agreement that Lee is surging. But has he really come from behind to lead the race in the closing days?
There is one other big data point to suggest that Lee is a serious threat to win the race: Black’s campaign launched an attack ad against Lee last week:
The details behind the accusations are murky, but essentially a member of the Army National Guard, William O. Roark III, sued Lee, claiming that he was twice let go from Lee’s heating, cooling, plumbing, and electrical company for being deployed, a claim that the Lee campaign denies. Per the Tennessean, here are the basics of the allegations:
A federal judge dismissed claims related to the 2003 and 2004 incidents but ruled that the case related to his 2008 termination could go forward, and Lee’s company settled out of court. However, a settlement is not an admission of guilt, and it hardly seems unusual that a large construction company was laying off workers in November of 2008 as the national real estate market imploded spectacularly.
It’s also revealing that the Black campaign backed off making these accusations against Lee when confronted. However, in closing days of the campaign the claim that Lee fired a vet for serving have resurfaced in a carefully worded ad from “Fight for Tennessee,” and the fact the ad is being run by a PAC is an obvious attempt to distance it from the Black campaign. The ad stars none other than Seal Team 6 member Robert O’Neill, best known for being the man who shot Bin Laden:
Black’s campaign spokesman insists that the campaign stands by the accusations it made about Lee. “We haven’t backed off anything,” Chris Hartline told THE WEEKLY STANDARD. However, when confronted with Lee’s cease and desist, the Black campaign replaced the charges leveled at Lee on their website with a link to a Tennessean article. Hartline also denies knowledge that Black campaign has anything to do with the O’Neill ad. “We’re not running any ads on Lee, I don’t think,” he says, adding, “there’s lots of different PACs running ads right now down here. Not really sure who’s involved with this one.”
The Lee campaign points to the fact that Black supporters have been helping the PAC behind the ad. Nashville businessman Lee Beaman, who recently endorsed Black, gave the PAC $10,000 last month. And Millard Oakley, who serves on Black’s County Leadership team, gave the PAC $50,000. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that Black approves of the ad or had anything at all to do with the PAC running it.
Nonetheless, Lee’s campaign is mad about the accusations and points to a lengthy track record of Lee’s company employing vets and supporting military-related charities. But more than that they’re racing against the clock to refute the ad and maintain their edge — the Lee campaign claims internal polls still have them up five or six points, consistent with the outside poll last week that showed Lee leading the race. Still, Rep. Black is the best known candidate in the race and well-liked by Republicans nationally. Despite last minute polls showing Lee narrowly ahead, it’s hard not to think of her as the frontrunner. Similarly, Randy Boyd remains in striking distance.
“The Lee Campaign clearly feels vulnerable on this one and the Black campaign allies are driving the issue home in the final days,” observes Steve Gill, Political Editor of the Tennessee Star. “When any of the top three candidates can still win, shifting even a few votes down the stretch may make the difference.”
