Christie still faces challenges for 2016

The New Jersey governor got a boost from recent news that the Justice Department hasn’t found evidence that he knew of a plan to close lanes on the George Washington Bridge out of political retribution.

But Republican insiders warn that it’s not all water under the bridge, so to speak.

“Of course he can recover from ‘bridgegate,’ but the campaign is so far out and there hasn’t been a finality yet,” said Hogan Gidley, a South Carolina Republican who advised former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., in 2012. “He can get back to where he was, but it’s difficult.”

Last November, before the scandal broke, Christie won re-election by a landslide, securing a second term at the helm of liberal New Jersey by running up big margins with the key demographics that have spurned Republicans nationally, including women and Hispanics. To heavyweight Republican campaign contributors and presidential power brokers, Christie’s brand of leadership was the tonic for a party that has had an increasingly difficult time winning 270 Electoral College votes.

Christie’s success, and position as perhaps the Republican Party’s premier White House frontrunner, was also built on his reputation as a bold and competent chief executive whose style drew a sharp contrast with President Obama’s subtle approach. The lingering hangover of “Bridgegate” undermines Christie’s image of an in-charge leader and makes it easier for his GOP competitors for the presidential nomination to score points with primary voters by attacking his record as governor.

Christie’s vulnerabilities include New Jersey’s credit rating — downgraded more than half dozen times on his watch — and the implosion of Atlantic City’s gambling economy plus the deals that any GOP governor with an all-Democratic legislature has to make in order to govern. A conservative group is already criticizing Christie for appointments he has made to the New Jersey courts.

“Many major donors looking for an electable executive candidate fear the federal investigation is a canary in the coal mine of un-vetted New Jersey machine politics,” added a GOP insider who is connected to the donor community. “The fact that this canary limped back still alive doesn’t mean that he wasn’t wounded and there isn’t danger lurking.”

Any such trepidation hasn’t hurt Christie’s ability to raise money for the Republican Governors Association or appeared to impact a packed campaign schedule that has taken him to 28 states and Washington, D.C.

Since becoming RGA chairman at this time last year, Christie has raised a record $75 million for the organization, which can accept donations in unlimited amounts and is similar to a super PAC. The RGA is on track to spend $100 million to elect Republican governors over the final 100 days of the midterm campaign. The question is whether Christie’s success in this arena can be replicated in a Republican presidential primary.

After narrowly winning his first race for governor in 2009, Christie rose to prominence in his party through a reputation for being willing to talk tough to New Jersey Democrats and union officials. At a time when Republicans were searching for someone to take the fight to Obama and match the president’s charisma, Christie captured their imagination.

He decided against running for president in 2012, but was one of the most sought-after surrogates on the campaign trail, and a frequent headliner for the Romney campaign. His star dimmed somewhat after Republican activists felt he embraced President Obama too warmly in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, which came just before Election Day 2012. But by the time Christie won re-election last year, he was back in the party’s good graces.

Many Republicans say Christie still has the magic that made him a contender in the first place. They predict that disillusionment with what they describe as Obama’s weak leadership will make Christie’s experience and aggressive demeanor particularly attractive to GOP primary voters in 2016.

“I think this too will pass,” veteran GOP insider Ron Kaufman said. “I think that the voters right now are in a mood that they’re so upset with this presidency that they’d vote for Attila the Hun if they felt he or she could be a competent president and turn the country around. Chris Christie is a competent man and he’s going to be a serious player come 2016 if he decides to run.”