BOONE, IOWA — Republicans here are proud of their special status in the presidential primary process, feelings that do not necessarily extend to the straw poll killed off by the Iowa GOP on Friday.
More than 1,500 Iowa Republicans packed a fairground in Central Iowa last Saturday to spend the day meeting and hearing from the GOP presidential contenders. They arrived early to reserve a spot on the lawn close to the stage, and stayed until the last candidate had finished his speech, proof that Iowans remain as interested as ever in participating in the process and maintaining their state’s caucuses as the first nominating contest on the primary calendar.
But that doesn’t mean they’re going to lament the loss of the straw poll.
The quadrennial contest, held in August of the year before the real voting occurs, was a major fundraiser for the Iowa GOP that over the years became a major event akin to a state fair. Its track record of picking nominees, let alone presidents, wasn’t good, however. And, one couple that attended Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s “Roast and Ride” event at the Central Iowa Expo last weekend said they weren’t worried about its possible demise.
“Never been to a straw poll; my whole life I’ve never been to a straw poll,” Craig Johnson, a 71-year-old semi-retired financial planner from West Des Moines told the Washington Examiner.
“The straw poll sometimes ruins the effect of what we’re trying to accomplish,” added Johnson’s wife, Virginia. “Here, we come of our own volition to hear what they’ve got to [say.] You don’t see somebody bussing three busloads in.”
Virginia Johnson was referring to how the straw poll had evolved over the years and why it ended up scaring the top 2016 contenders away.
As the event grew in influence, it became not a test of support in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, but a test of straw poll organization. The candidates who finished strong tended to be those who were able to bus in the most “voters” and those who offered the best culinary fare inside their tents. Placement for the tents became so competitive that they were auctioned off. Rarely did the winners advance to the nomination.
In 2011, then-Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota won the straw poll; her presidential campaign soon flamed out. Meanwhile former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty performed horribly in the same straw poll. He dropped out of the race, a move deemed premature when Mitt Romney, who eventually won the 2012 GOP nomination, was pushed to the limit by one “B” level candidate after another.
Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who won the 1999 straw poll, was the last Republican to win the contest and advance to the presidency. He was the only Republican to win the straw poll and advance to the White House in the same election cycle. His father, President H.W. Bush, won the August 1979 straw poll; he lost his bid for the 1980 nomination to Ronald Reagan.
Given all of this history, none of the top 2016 contenders were planning to participate, among them former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush; Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, considered the caucuses front runner; and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. The last two winners of the Republican caucuses — former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — were also planning to take a pass.
“The straw poll lost any chance it had when Scott Walker and Marco Rubio decided to skip,” a veteran Iowa Republican operative said.
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
