The upcoming lame-duck session of Congress could be thrown into uncertainty if close races, runoff elections, uncounted votes and winners with no party allegiance leave the Senate majority undecided.
The House and Senate are set to reconvene on Nov. 12th for the start of the post-election session, which will likely last until December and would wrap up the unfinished, must-pass legislation of the 113th session.
The to-do list isn’t long, but the tasks are critical: Congress must pass a measure to keep the federal government funded beyond a temporary measure that expires on Dec. 11, and many lawmakers want to extend a series of tax breaks for individuals and small businesses that expired last year.
The Senate may also take votes on authorizing the president to take military action against Islamic terrorists in the Middle East, debate a Defense Department authorization measure and perhaps hold a confirmation hearing on a candidate to replace outgoing Attorney General Eric Holder.
The Senate majority will remain in Democratic hands at least until the end of the session, but what if it’s undecided which party takes the gavel in January?
“The lame-duck could be impacted because the post-election legislative strategy that either side has waiting in the wings for 2015 would be thrown out the window,” Republican strategist and former House and Senate GOP aide Ron Bonjean told the Washington Examiner.
The session would be particularly tough for the GOP if they fall far short of expectations and are left shy of the majority with some undecided races.
“Obviously there would be some pretty unhappy Republicans,” one top GOP aide told the Examiner.
There will be little left to decide in the House, where there is little question Republicans will remain in control in 2015.
House appropriators are already formulating a spending bill that would fund the government beyond the Dec. 11 deadline and perhaps through the end of fiscal 2015, but some aides said they are concerned it could be harder to pass with the future majority up in the air in the Senate.
Conservative Republicans, if it appears they’ll remain in the Senate minority, may fight harder against a long-term spending bill that does not include provisions that prohibit the president from using executive authority to further limit deportations of illegal immigrants.
“If Republicans are not going to be in position to be in the majority next year to set spending levels,” one top GOP aide said, “Then it would be even more of an argument not to engage in a lame-duck spending deal.”
House appropriators say they won’t wait for an outcome, even if Nov. 5 doesn’t yield a new majority.
“The Committee expects to begin omnibus negotiations in earnest following the election, regardless of the results,” committee spokeswoman Jennifer Hing said.
An undecided Senate majority would also muddle President Obama’s plan to appoint a new attorney general. Obama would likely send Congress a new candidate in the lame duck session if Republicans were assured the majority in 2015, but he could potentially wait until next year if Democrats have a shot at holding on to the gavel, aides said.
Both parties in the Senate typically use the lame duck session to organize for 2015. Republicans told the Examiner they plan to pick their leaders even if they don’t know who won the majority in the lame duck session.
In other words, Republicans won’t know if they are electing a new majority leader, or a minority leader.
“We’ll have the leadership election on Nov. 13th, regardless of any runoffs,” a spokesman for Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told the Examiner.
Analysts say the chances are significant that some races will be undecided on Nov. 5.
The Louisiana and Georgia Senate races could require runoff elections that take place in December and January, respectively. And Senate races in Kansas, North Carolina, Iowa and other states are so close, the margin may trigger a recount.
And in Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman has yet to declare which party he’ll join in the Senate, which could further muddle the post-Nov. 4 results.
“As of Tuesday’s model run, there is a 53 percent chance we’ll be able to project Senate control near Nov. 4,” Harry Enten wrote on the blog 538. “47 percent of the time, the midterms go to overtime. It’s basically a coin flip.”
