Donald Trump on Tuesday became the first 2016 contender to qualify for the GOP presidential nomination, according to existing statutes established by the Republican National Convention Standing Rules Committee.
Trump’s overwhelming victory in the Northern Mariana Islands marks the eighth state or U.S. territory where the New York billionaire has secured a majority of the available delegates, making him the only candidate to satisfy the RNC’s little-known Rule 40(b).
Under Rule 40(b) of the RNC’s convention rules, a candidate must win a majority of delegates in eight or more states or U.S. territories to be eligible for the nomination. The threshold was adjusted from five to eight states in 2012 to prevent then-Texas Congressman Ron Paul from having his name placed into nomination.
Trump has now won a majority of the delegates in South Carolina, Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Alabama and the Northern Mariana Islands, putting him right at the eight-state threshold. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Trump’s most formidable opponent, follows with a majority of the delegates in four states — Texas, Maine, Kansas and Idaho — while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has two: D.C. and Puerto Rico. Ohio Gov. John Kasich has zero, having not yet won a single primary or caucus.
Should the Republican field narrow to just Trump versus Cruz after Ohio and Florida vote on Tuesday, the Texas senator could also reach the eight-state threshold before the convention in July.
But even if Trump and Cruz meet the criteria of Rule 40(b), the rule could once again be amended by the Rules Committee to prevent either or both candidates from having a shot at becoming the nominee on the floor of the convention.
Just like it did in 2012, the Rules Committee could raise the number of states or U.S. territories where a candidate needs to have won a majority of the delegates in order to be considered for nomination. The committee could also lower the threshold to allow other candidates, like Kasich and Rubio, to qualify for consideration, or scrap the rule entirely.
Such an adjustment would likely attract significant backlash from supporters of Trump, and potentially Cruz, who would regard it as a maneuver by the establishment to keep either candidate from becoming the nominee.
An editor at the conservative site Hot Air recently explained, “Imagine that Trump gets to the convention with a majority of delegates in 20 states and Rubio has a majority in just five, and suddenly the rule is changed to make five the cut-off for eligibility. Trump fans will scream that the establishment is rigging the game to help their fair-haired boy, and they’ll be right.”
Assuming Rule 40(b) remains as is, and Trump succeeds as the only candidate with a majority of the delegates in eight states but without the 1,237 delegates needed to outright secure the nonination, his name would still be the only one to appear on the first ballot when delegates are bound by the vote of their state’s electorate.
The outcome of that vote could make Trump the 2016 Republican presidential nominee or lead to several rounds of voting that would open the door to his opponents, including a party statesman like Mitt Romney.
All things considered, the significance of Rule 40(b) now may be even greater by the time July rolls around.
