Top U.S. bank economists expect the economic recovery to accelerate in 2015.
Real economic output will grow by 2.9 percent in the year, according to projections released by the American Bankers Association’s economic advisory committee Friday.
The committee, comprising 15 economists from the biggest banks in the country, released its outlook in Washington after convening to discuss the outlook and consult with policymakers at the White House and elsewhere.
The 2.9 percent real gross domestic product growth the projections see for 2015 would improve on the 2.5 percent growth for 2014, a year that saw the unemployment rate fall from 6.7 percent to 5.6 percent.
“A lot of us feel very comfortable” with the economic outlook, said Ethan Harris, the group’s chairman and the co-head of economic research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Despite slowing growth overseas and falling commodity prices, “the fundamental backdrop in the U.S. economy is actually much better than it has been in several years,” Harris said.
The group sees inflation slowing throughout the year, with consumer prices rising 0.7 percent on the year as oil prices remain low, at $60 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate Crude.
The economists also project the unemployment rate to remain near its current level, ticking down to 5.5 percent by the end of the year.
In a broad context, 2.9 percent growth for a year is “not very impressive,” said Harris, who called it a “ ‘in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king’ kind of number.”
Nevertheless it would represent an acceleration in the tepid recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, and continuing improvement in the still-damaged labor market.
