Despite losing badly in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday night, a new poll suggests Donald Trump could regain a great deal of momentum in two weeks time when voters in New York cast their ballots.
The New York billionaire carries 52 percent of Republican primary voters in his home state in the latest Monmouth University survey, putting him more than 20 percentage points ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Kasich draws 25 percent support among GOP voters in New York, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds a distant third place at 17 percent.
Trump’s double-digit lead over his rivals is due in part to the overwhelming support he attracts across every region in his home state. The Republican front-runner carries 58 percent support in New York City and Long Island, 52 percent in Upstate New York and 47 percent in Western New York. Neither of his opponents top 30 percent in any of those regions.
“If this result holds in every single congressional district, Trump will walk away with nearly all of New York State’s delegates,” Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University’s Polling Institute, said in a statement.
New York has 95 delegates up for grabs on a proportional basis, although some congressional districts will award all three of their delegates to a single candidate if he is the only one to top 20 percent support in the district.
Interestingly, about seven in 10 Republican voters in the Empire State said they feel no more inclined to support Trump because he is a fellow New Yorker. Fourteen percent said it makes them proud that he is the leading GOP candidate, while 13 percent felt embarrassed to be associated with him.
Looking ahead to the general election, 70 percent of New York Republicans said they would support Trump if he’s the GOP nominee, while 9 percent would vote for likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and 5 percent would sit the election out.
More GOP voters in Trump’s home state (81 percent) would support Kasich as the nominee and far less (3 percent) would be inclined to vote for Clinton. Cruz would perform the worst among New York Republicans as the GOP nominee, with only 66 percent saying they would vote for him.
“It is interesting that Kasich would be a stronger nominee in Trump’s home state, but it is purely academic,” Murray said.
The survey of 302 voters likely to participate in New York’s April 19 Republican primary was conducted April 3-5. Results contain a margin of error plus or minus 5.6 percent.
