Hawkish Republican senators are advising President Donald Trump to decertify the Iran nuclear deal in October, a move that critics of the agreement see as a key step in changing U.S. policy toward Iran.
Trump is required to certify to Congress every 90 days whether Iran is fully implementing the deal and whether continued sanctions relief is in America’s vital national security interests, among other conditions. If he does not, lawmakers have 60 days to debate reimposing nuclear deal sanctions.
Florida senator Marco Rubio said he is meeting with administration officials this week and has advised the president to decertify.
“There are grounds for it,” Rubio told THE WEEKLY STANDARD. “Iran has been, at a minimum, in violation of the spirit, if not the letter, of the agreement, from the first day.”
He added that the administration should crack down on Tehran’s non-nuclear activities regardless.
“The agreement should not be a free pass for them to continue to develop ballistic missile capabilities, sponsor terrorism, conduct cyber attacks, or human rights violations,” he said. “If Iran considers that to be a violation of the deal, then too bad.”
Ahead of the last certification deadline in July, Rubio, Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, Georgia senator David Perdue, and Texas senator Ted Cruz urged the administration to decertify. The quartet of lawmakers argued that Iran has violated the terms of the deal repeatedly, ruling out the compliance certification, and that Tehran’s malign non-nuclear activities rule out the national security certification.
Cotton told TWS earlier in September that he has also advised Trump to decertify. But the Arkansas senator underscored then that decertification itself wouldn’t blow up the deal—and that it would not put a new burden on Congress.
“The idea that somehow the president would be ‘kicking it to Congress’ and imposing some new burden or obligation on Congress is misguided,” he told TWS earlier in September. “Congress already has this burden as part of our inherent duties, and we can do at any time exactly what the [Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act] allows us to do in a 60 day time frame.”
Cotton, a leading critic of the nuclear deal, later told the Wall Street Journal that he did not intend to immediately advocate for reimposing all sanctions. He said that he wanted the president to detail the circumstances under which he would ‘snap back’ sanctions, and that he wanted the administration to try to fix the deal after decertification.
Perdue told TWS Wednesday that Trump should decertify if Iran is not living up to its commitments.
“I personally think they are in violation. We know that they’re in violation of the U.N. sanctions,” he said. “With regard to their violations of the JCPOA, I’ll wait to see what the administration and people over there come up with.”
Other Republicans said they are eager to hear the president’s rationale if he chooses to decertify. Trump predicted this summer that he would not certify at the October deadline.
“I want to see what the evidence is—I was not a supporter of the agreement,” said Maine senator Susan Collins. “But it would take more expertise to evaluate whether or not they’re in compliance.”
Decertification or certification is only a first step. The administration is considering a range of options for what to do after.
One prominent option includes decertifying and using the threat of Congress reimposing sanctions as leverage to fix the deal. Another option involves decertifying and walking away from the deal altogether.
Certification is also an option. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is reportedly advocating for certifying and, if the deal’s flaws are not fixed in the ensuing 90 days, decertifying at the next deadline in January.
Mark Dubowitz, a leading advocate of the “decertify and fix” option, warned strongly against certifying again. Trump grudgingly certified at the last deadline in July, and before that in April.
“If the president continues to certify the JCPOA, inertia and the status quo will probably capture him the way a policy of “strategic patience” on North Korea got Obama,” said Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “This will effectively guarantee the clerical regime pathways to missile-delivered nuclear weapons.”
Lawmakers are mixed as to what should happen to the deal down the line. A number of GOP senators told TWS this week that they would be open to administration attempts to renegotiate the deal.
House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Royce has said he wants to see the administration try vigorously enforcing the deal—including ensuring that Iran’s military sites are inspected—before other options.
“We should enforce the hell out of the agreement and thereby force compliance on the part of Iran,” Royce said on CNN. “$100 billion worth of leverage in terms of the money that was withheld from Iran in international sanctions has now gone into the hands of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
“They now have this money,” he said. “And so in a way, the toothpaste is out of the tube.”
Arizona senator Jeff Flake told TWS earlier in September that, if Trump decertifies, he would be hesitant to reimpose sanctions and effectively withdraw from the agreement.
“I would be reluctant, and I think some of my colleagues will as well, to relieve Iran of its obligations under the agreement after they’ve already recognized the benefits,” he said.
“Unilateral sanctions were never as effective,” Flake added. “It’s the multilateral nature that really drove Iran to the negotiating table. And Europe’s gone on us, so I think it’s a more difficult proposition.”
