In the Florida gubernatorial and Senate races, Republicans Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott, respectively, won upsets against their Democratic rivals, Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson.
These races are interesting for different reasons.
On the Senate side, fundamentals have pointed strongly toward a Nelson win for a while. Basically it’s a swing state in a relatively Democratic year with a Democratic incumbent – it all looked like a real advantage for Nelson. Furthermore, in the last days of the campaign the polls seemed to move show a gorwing Nelson lead, suggesting that this race would move in the direction of those “fundamental” election factors.
But Scott was a good candidate and Nelson wasn’t. Scott’s approval rating as governor has gone up a lot in the last year as he’s not only managed crises (i.e., hurricanes) but kept a smart level of distance from Trump (i.e. getting close enough but still maintaining an individual reputation).
The gubernatorial race is arguably a bigger deal. This race was supposed to be a blueprint for how Democrats could pull left on economics and cultural issues and win in swing states. Gillum, a liberal Democrat, and DeSantis, who has tried to imitate Trump in every way, provided voters with a pretty intense contrast. And DeSantis won.
It’s going to take a couple of days to unwind exactly what all of this means. But it’s definitely a rough data point for the Democrats who believe that running hard to the left is the best way to win elections.
