A new poll released Tuesday shows Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton trailing four Republicans in a hypothetical general election in Iowa, a key swing state.
According to a Public Policy Polling survey of registered voters, Clinton trails former neurosurgeon Ben Carson by four points, 44-40, and three other Republicans by a single point (Marco Rubio, Scott Walker and Mike Huckabee) in potential head-to-head match-ups next November.
Even when Clinton leads, it is by a narrow margin. According to the poll, Clinton leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush Bush 44 percent to 40 percent, her biggest advantage over any GOP candidate, and real estate magnate Donald Trump 43-40. She also leads Sen. Rand Paul 43-40.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percent.
This represents a downturn from the last time the Democratic firm polled Iowa, showing Clinton leading eight GOP candidates in April by an average of four points. That average is now down to a half of a point.
The poll should be of particular worry for Team Hillary given that Iowa has trended blue in past elections. Iowa has voted Democratic in six of the past seven general elections, with the exception of George W. Bush in 2004.
Clinton would receive a major boost from a third-party run by Trump. In a matchup between Clinton, Bush and Trump, Clinton beats the former Florida governor 39 percent to 30 percent, with Trump pulling in 21 percent overall, including 29 percent of the Republican vote. He only picks off 8 percent of the Democratic vote in this scenario, while also grabbing 28 percent of the independent vote.
