“His personal can’t bring up his policies, but his policies can bring down his personal.”
That, in the shorthand of Washington insiders — it’s from a top Republican aide in the Senate — is the secret to understanding Barack Obama’s presidency in the months ahead, at least as GOP strategists see it.
What it means is this: After 100 days in the White House, Barack Obama’s personal approval rating remains high. In the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, he clocked in at 69 percent job approval rating, with 26 percent disapproval. But at the same time, the public’s opinion of Obama’s handling of key issues is significantly lower than his personal approval.
For example, in the Post poll, 58 percent approve his handling of the economy — 11 points lower than Obama’s personal approval rating. Fifty-one percent approve his handling of the federal budget deficit — 18 points below his personal rating. And just 41 percent approve his handling of the U.S. automaker problem — 28 points below his personal approval rating.
On nearly every issue he faces, Obama’s policy position is less popular than his personality, creating what one Republican pollster calls a “dynamic tension” between Obama the man and Obama the program.
And that’s before Obama has begun to really push the major elements of his agenda. Will Obama’s health care proposal, which will probably involve the government rationing medical treatment, make him more popular? Unlikely. Will his environmental proposal, which will result in higher energy prices for millions of Americans, make him more popular? Unlikely. Will his education proposal, crafted to safeguard the teachers’ unions’ interests, make him more popular? Unlikely. If Obama goes forward — “boldly,” as his supporters like to say — his popularity will suffer.
GOP strategists are looking carefully at the first months of Ronald Reagan’s presidency. In April 1981, Reagan’s job approval rating stood at 67 percent, with 19 percent disapproval. Like Obama, Reagan’s personal approval rating out-polled his policies. A year later, in April 1982, Reagan’s approval rating had dropped to 45 percent, with 46 percent disapproval.
At the beginning of his term, Reagan could legitimately blame Jimmy Carter for the mess in Washington. But at some point, the problem became Reagan’s, and when unemployment began to rise during Reagan’s watch, the GOP paid a political price. In the 1982 mid-term elections, the president’s party lost 26 seats in the House.
Today, the key for Obama, as it was for Reagan, is unemployment. The talking heads in Washington say unemployment is a “lagging indicator” of economic improvement. Maybe so, but the rest of the country doesn’t see it that way. “It may be a lagging indicator to economists, but to Americans out there, it’s a front-and-center indicator,” one plugged-in GOP pollster told me. If unemployment doesn’t improve by the end of this year, Obama’s popularity will drop.
What can Republicans do while they wait for the president to create problems for himself? Work hard on taxes, health care, energy, and national security — and be ready as a credible alternative when Obama’s poll numbers decline. GOP strategists believe it’s critical not to attack Obama directly, given his 60-plus percent approval rating. Rather, they should hammer on those issues where the president’s strength is less imposing.
At a recent White House meeting, Obama frankly told Republicans he planned to use parliamentary measures to jam major programs through the Senate without any Republican input, or even debate. I’m told Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell responded with a statement along the lines of, “I appreciate your candor, but that’s really going to sour things around here.”
And perhaps around the country, too. I asked the Republican pollster to outline a scenario in which Obama’s popularity might fall to earth. “He continues to govern from a one-party perspective, and the economic measures he has put in place do not move the unemployment numbers,” the pollster said. “So people begin to think that he took a more partisan route than necessary and didn’t have the impact on unemployment that he should have.”
Maybe that will happen. For now, what Republicans have to realize is that they have little power to affect Obama’s popularity. If it falls, it will be because of what he does, and not because of Republican strategy. All the GOP can do is be ready when the time comes.
Byron York, The Examiner’s chief political correspondent, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Friday, and his stories and blog posts can be read daily at ExaminerPolitics.com.
