A potential nuclear deal with Iran is so unpalatable to Americans and members of Congress that even Democrats could be persuaded to reject it barring a surprise twist in the negotiations, two former centrist Democratic senators said Monday.
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Evan Bayh of Indiana cited what Lieberman called “broad, bipartisan anxiety” in Congress about the reported outlines of the deal taking shape in predicting that President Obama will have a hard time selling it to lawmakers.
“I believe Congress will reject the agreement,” said Lieberman, who served as a Democrat for three terms before winning election to a fourth in 2006 as an Independent. He was the Democrats’ nominee for vice president in 2000.
Both former lawmakers said they expect a deal to emerge from international talks now taking place in Vienna, but not necessarily by the July 1 deadline negotiators have set for a final agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program. Throughout the nearly two-year process, negotiators from the P5+1 countries — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — have shown more interest in making a deal with Iran than in meeting their deadlines.
Obama on May 22 agreed to submit any nuclear deal with Iran to Congress for review, signing legislation he had once threatened to veto after it cleared with overwhelming bipartisan majorities in both chambers. The process is weighted in favor of allowing an agreement to go into effect, since lawmakers would have to override an expected presidential veto of a resolution rejecting a deal.
Nearly all Republicans are likely to reject any deal, and many Democrats have expressed concerns that an agreement may delay, but not prevent, an Iranian bid for a nuclear weapon.
“This is all about what the Democrats do,” Lieberman said, explaining that party loyalty will keep some Democrats on Obama’s side, but public distrust of Iran and concerns about the ability to enforce any deal could cause those in swing districts to lean toward rejection.
“My own guess is that there would be 60 votes to break a filibuster” in the Senate, but a veto override likely will fall one or two votes short of the necessary two-thirds majority, Bayh said. “That would be a very difficult matter.”
Further, any vote on an Iran deal is likely to come after a bruising battle over trade that has pitted the White House against congressional Democrats, and lingering bad feelings over presidential arm-twisting will make another such effort even harder, he said.
Still, both former lawmakers said clear majorities in both chambers are likely to vote to reject any deal — which would put the United States in a bad position with both Iran and its negotiating partners.
“That’s a very difficult position from which to be operating nationally,” Bayh said. “We have to have a national debate about what is the essential nature of the Iranian regime.”
