Top aides to Mike Huckabee fanned out across Washington late last week on a mission to sell the Republican presidential contender to Beltway opinion-makers that might remain skeptical of the former Arkansas governor’s prospects.
New York businessman/entertainer Donald Trump, and to a lesser degree, celebrated pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, have dominated the GOP’s crowded 2016 field. Yet the case for Huckabee, as presented by his team in a neatly wrapped booklet of polling data, was compelling. Indeed, it’s this information that has Huckabee confidant this campaign will turn out differently than his first presidential bid in 2008, when he won the Iowa caucuses but flamed out in later primaries.
“Polling shows Gov. Huckabee is the most well-known, most well-liked and most trusted candidate in the field. That cannot be undervalued,” said Hogan Gidley, his campaign spokesman. “If we learned anything from 2012 Presidential election — candidates can be strong on all the issues, but people don’t vote for someone they don’t like. So much of politics is simple: do I know you, do I like you and do I trust you. It’s clear that people know Governor Huckabee, they like him and they trust him.”
As it happens, Trump and Carson aren’t the only celebrity figures seeking the Republican presidential nomination. In between his two presidential runs, Huckabee hosted a weekly television show on Fox News. It did wonders for his name identification, and according to Huckabee’s team, made a positive impression about him in the minds of Republican primary voters that would be very hard to dislodge.
To prove that assertion, the Huckabee campaign shared internal survey data compiled by pollster Bob Wickers. Early this summer, just as the race was getting under way, he polled likely Republican voters in Iowa and South Carolina, reading them phrases about Huckabee and asking them to agree or disagree whether the “phrase fits.”
• “He’s conservative:” 73 percent in Iowa said “phrase fits;” 67 percent in South Carolina said so.
• “He cares about people like me:” 67 percent in Iowa said “phrase fits;” 59 percent in South Carolina said so.
• “He is someone I like and trust:” 62 percent in Iowa said “phrase fits;” 56 percent in South Carolina said so.
• “He shares my values:” 62 percent in Iowa said “phrase fits;” 58 percent in South Carolina said so.
• “He would make a good president:” 56 percent in Iowa said “phrase fits;” 47 percent in South Carolina said so.
• “He’s a strong leader:” 54 percent in Iowa said “phrase fits;” 49 percent in South Carolina said so.
Huckabee currently sits in eighth place nationally among GOP voters, with 4.3 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics.com polling average; and in ninth in the Washington Examiner power rankings. The competition is heavier than it was eight years ago. Multiple candidates in the race either appeal to, or are competing for, the socially conservative evangelical base Huckabee is after. Additionally, the race is littered with current former governors who, like Huckabee, are pitching themselves as experienced chief executives who can shake up Washington.
But peek underneath the hood, and Huckabee’s numbers and political machine suggest that he is a candidate with a lot of room to grow as the battle races toward autumn.
• Huckabee has 164 leaders representing 61 of 99 counties in Iowa; In South Carolina, he has 170 leaders and 38 of 46 counties organized.
• In a national Gallup poll taken this month, Huckabee registered a 57 percent favorability rating; 19 percent viewed him unfavorably and 24 percent didn’t care.
• Per an average of recent polls in Iowa and South Carolina, Huckabee’s favorable rating is 67 percent and 59 percent, respectively. His unfavorable rating was 20 percent in Iowa, with 13 percent saying they weren’t sure. In South Carolina, 24 percent viewed him unfavorably; 17 percent weren’t sure.
Huckabee is laser focused on Iowa, where his network remained strong during his sojourn at Fox News. But where his 2008 race was cash-strapped and all about succeeding in Iowa — which he did, taking everyone by surprise in the process, this time Huckabee is widening his focus to include South Carolina and the Southern states that are banding together for the March 1 “SEC” primary.
That is evident in the polling booklet shared with the Examiner and others in D.C.
There’s nary a mention of New Hampshire, host of the first traditional primary of the 2016 contest and second nominating contest of overall. But Huckabee offers plenty of data to make the case for his strength in South Carolina, which votes third, as well as some information to make the case for his strength in the Southern states that will pull the lever soon after. Huckabee served in elective office in Arkansas for nearly 15 years.
“We learned in 2008, it’s tough to build a rocket ship mid flight,” Gidley said. “We’ve got the organization needed — not just in Iowa and South Carolina — not just in the SEC Primary states, but nationally to win the nomination.”
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
