Of the Republicans that still don’t take Donald Trump seriously, his opponents for the GOP nomination are the biggest offenders.
Their disregard for the celebrity businessman is evident in the soft treatment most Republican contenders give the presidential front-runner on the campaign trail; and is especially the reason why they avoid attacking him. Despite leading in most public opinion polls for months, Trump is viewed by most Republicans as the easiest candidate to beat, if they can just manage to survive the primary long enough for it to transform into a head-to-head matchup with the New Yorker.
“The best path to victory is to be the winner of the group around Trump and then take him down one-on-one,” said a Republican strategist who is active in the 2016 campaign. “He won’t have the ability to dodge or generalize; the contrast will be stark.”
Various theories have been proffered to explain why few Republicans have invested in, and prosecuted, a concerted strategy to take down Trump with first votes less than three weeks away. Weaker candidates attacked him earlier in the race and their numbers sank even further; they hope to court Trump’s loyal base whenever he falters and fear that attacking him would alienate those voters; they’re afraid of blowback from Trump, whose vicious rhetoric has proven effective.
There’s a little bit of truth to all of that.
But a major reason they’re laying off Trump, apparently giving him a free ride in Iowa and New Hampshire so close to the first two contests on the primary calendar, is because they all want to run against him. Tearing down Trump could clear a path for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, or Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, or possibly one of the governors in the race — and all are deemed more formidable than Trump.
Indeed, with the exception of former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida lately attacking Trump verbally on the stump, the candidate facing the most paid media attacks by the most candidates and super PACs — including Bush super PAC Right to Rise USA — is Rubio. The Republican field views the senator as a dangerous long-term threat to their nomination hopes, even though he is currently running third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and third in South Carolina.
These Republicans also dread Cruz. He’s captured the imagination of many conservative voters and assembled a well-funded, well-oiled grassroots operation that extends across the country. A Trump win in the Iowa caucuses, where Cruz leads narrowly, could blunt the Texan’s momentum. Among the front-runners, only Rubio has consistently attacked Cruz since the campaign entered a more aggressive phase late last year.
“No doubt they fear Cruz more than Trump in a two-way,” Republican strategist Brad Todd said. “There is a school of thought that Trump puts a lid on Cruz for the time being. I’m not sure that’s right but it’s a common theory.”
So far this month, only two candidates have been weathering attacks from hostile super PACs, according to independent expenditure filings with the Federal Elections Commission: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, courtesy of the pro-Rubio Conservative Solutions PAC, and Rubio. The Floridian has sustained hits from Right to Rise USA, the Bush super PAC and two super PACs supporting Cruz, Keep the Promise I, and Courageous Conservatives. No outside groups have laid a glove on Trump.
The first-time candidate has dominated the campaign for months, leading most state and national surveys. But Republicans comfort themselves by figuring that even at a strong 34 percent nationally in such a crowded field, per the RealClearPolitics.com average of national GOP primary polls, that leaves 66 percent of voters who support others. In a direct matchup with Trump, all the other candidate has to do is get 50 percent plus one.
Between Trump’s bombastic style, populist to liberal positions on key issues and questionable grassroots organization outside of Iowa, most Republicans believe that won’t be hard to accomplish. Polling that suggests Trump has a lower ceiling of potential supporters than the other top tier candidates reinforce their confidence, as does the fact that he routinely scores highest in surveys when Republican voters are asked to name candidates they absolutely could not back in the primary.
“This is being discussed pretty openly among operatives here in D.C.,” Republican operative Jim Dornan said.
Dornan said this strategic view of the race has particularly caught hold among the independent super PACs supporting the various candidates. His analysis of the advertising run by these outside groups leads him to believe that they’re planning for one non-Trump candidate to emerge from the field and engage in a showdown for the nomination with the real estate mogul and reality television star, and they’re doing everything they can to make sure their horse is that candidate.
Some GOP strategists caution that the strategy could backfire.
Waiting too long to undermine Trump could allow positive opinions about him (among Republican primary voters) to solidify and inadvertently help him rack up some impressive finishes in the early voting states which could snowball into unstoppable momentum. With Iowa caucusing on Feb. 1, followed by the New Hampshire primary Feb. 9 and South Carolina going to the polls Feb. 20, the time is long past to build a case against Trump, these insiders worry.
“Have any of these candidates worked their way through complicated multi-primary fields? They are very, very different creatures,” said Republican consultant Stuart Stevens.
