Forget Louisiana. Georgia is the setting of the new nightmare scenario for politicos eager to find out which party will control the Senate for the last two years of President Obama’s term.
Some Peach State political observers think it’s increasingly likely that the Senate race between Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn could result in a runoff, which wouldn’t take place until Jan. 6.
Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford drew press for her performance in the Oct. 7 Georgia Senate debate, and a recent Public Policy poll shows her winning 5 percent of the vote.
As is typical with libertarian candidates, her fundraising has been anemic at best. But she will share the debate stage with Nunn and Perdue two more times this cycle, which should raise her name ID and — potentially — give her a chance to make news and court undecided voters.
Will that be enough for her to keep both Nunn and Perdue under that tantalizing 50-percent mark? Mark Rountree, president of the polling and consulting firm Landmark Communications, thinks so.
“She’s been polling pretty consistently at four, five percent,” he said of Swafford. “I think there’s a very good possibility that that will go into a runoff.”
It wouldn’t be the first time Georgia voters don’t pick a senator on Election Night, he added. In the 1992 Senate race, Republican Paul Coverdell and incumbent Democrat Wyche Fowler were forced to a runoff because libertarian Jim Hudson won 3 percent of the vote (Coverdell was the victor in the runoff). And in 2008, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin had a runoff after libertarian Allen Buckley took 3 percent.
So if Swafford manages to get 5 percent of the vote, it could potentially be a long holiday stretch of campaigning for Nunn and Perdue.
But there’s no consensus that’s what Georgia is in for. Georgian Debbie Dooley, a member of the Tea Party Patriots board of directors, said she thinks enough undecided voters will line up behind Perdue to let him pull off a win without a runoff. Dooley said that while she thinks Swafford is “an excellent candidate,” the national implications of the race will discourage voters from backing the libertarian. And Swafford’s fundraising troubles are her biggest weakness.
“Were that to change, that could change the whole dynamic,” Dooley added.
Dooley also said there is residual bad blood toward Perdue among some grassroots activists because he once belittled Republican primary contender Karen Handel for not having a college degree. Perdue later called Handel to apologize, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. But Dooley said that not everyone has moved on.
“But none of that is causing the heartburn that Harry Reid is causing,” she added.
Candi Goldman, a spokeswoman for Swafford’s campaign, said it has a radio ad up now and is recording another next week.
Mark Bednar, a spokesman for Perdue’s campaign, said it doesn’t expect a runoff.
“We feel that his message will put us well over the 50-percent threshold,” Bednar said.
“Even though Michelle Nunn has thrown the kitchen sink at us, trying to smear David with personal attacks, Georgians know she’s just a proxy for Obama and Reid,” he added.
The Nunn campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment on whether or not it’s bracing for a potential runoff.
