With new polls indicating Democratic candidate Barack Obama could win big over Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary, political analysts believe back-to-back victories here and in Iowa would not only ensure a first-place finish in the Jan. 19 South Carolina primary, but also give him a virtual lock on the Democratic nomination.
Five polls released in the past two days show Obama leading Clinton in New Hampshire by at least 10 points, and that margin could grow, pollsters say.
“If he wins in New Hampshire, where even the possibility of a really strong win looks increasingly likely, he is likely to win in South Carolina, where half the voters are black,” said David Bositis, an analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington. “Any candidate in the past that has won in South Carolina and in New Hampshire is likely to be nominated.”
Obama’s campaign stops in New Hampshire have attracted throngs of excited voters who line up for hours for a chance to meet the candidate. New Hampshire pundits have begun to describe Obama as a political rock star who has created unprecedented enthusiasm, particularly among young voters.
Conversely, the Clinton camp is clearly struggling. Hillary Clinton, who also attracts large and enthusiastic crowds, showed rare emotion Monday with a small group of female voters at a coffee shop in Manchester as she acknowledged the Obama surge.
“I see what is happening,” Clinton said, her voice cracking. “We have to reverse it.”
But experts say that’s not likely, especially given the unusually short turnaround between the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.
Bositis described Clinton’s prospects as “very doubtful” and “increasingly bad” if Obama wins in New Hampshire.
The well-funded Obama and Clinton campaigns were running about even financially before Iowa but potential double victories mean the Obama camp is sure to begin raising more money than Clinton.
A thousand people trying to see Obama jammed into an opera house in the small town of Lebanon early Monday morning, with hundreds more unable to fit into the event.
“There is something going on out there,” Obama told a cheering audience. “There is something stirring in the air, you can feel it.”
Still, when Obama asked if there were any undecided voters in the audience, plenty of hands went up.
Obama adviser David Axelrod said the campaign isn’t taking the Iowa victory or the promising New Hampshire poll numbers for granted. The campaign, he added, is well-prepared for the road beyond New Hampshire.
“We have the most extensive organization in Nevada and South Carolina,” Axelrod said, adding that the campaign is also well organized for the Super Tuesday primary that will include 20 states and in all likelihood will crown the Democratic victor.
