Donald Trump notched three more key victories Tuesday, taking Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii to maintain his position as the clear front-runner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
In Mississippi, Trump won 47 percent of the vote to Ted Cruz’s 36 percent. In Michigan, Trump won 36.5 percent, and Cruz was in second again with 25.1 percent. And in Hawaii, Trump beat Cruz again, 42.4 to 32.7. Marco Rubio came in a disappointing fourth, fourth and third in those states.
But Cruz remained in the hunt for the GOP nod. He picked up delegates with a strong victory in Idaho over Trump, a state he won with 45.4 percent to Trump’s 28 percent. That win helped add to his case that he is best positioned to block the New York celebrity businessman from the nomination.
Trump dominated states viewed as fertile ground for rivals, Cruz and Kasich, a potential blow to their hopes of blunting Trump’s momentum. The real estate mogul and reality television star was projected the winner of Mississippi, cementing his hold on the Deep South that had once been considered Cruz’s firewall. Trump also was projected the victor in Michigan, a midwestern state that was supposed to be strong for Kasich.
And early Wednesday morning, Hawaii was called for Trump as well.
“I want to thank the public; I want to thank the people of Michigan; I want to thank the people of Mississippi and it is such a great honor,” Trump said to supporters at a golf club that he owns in Florida. Trump was subdued, at least by his own standards for bombast, as he spoke during an expansive and meandering victory speech and press conference.
The event was carried in its entirety by the cable news networks, which chose to stick with Trump rather than broadcast Hillary Clinton’s election night remarks. Clinton won Mississippi but in a stunning upset lost Michigan to Bernie Sanders.
But it’s likely to be remembered not, unusually, for anything Trump said, but for his decision to present to reporters the array of Trump branded products. Near the podium were displays of Trump steaks, water and wine, among other items, that Trump featured to defend himself against attacks questioning his business savvy that are running on television in Florida, where multiple anti-Trump super PACs are active.
In a contest where the goal is to 1,237 delegates, it’s unclear that these attacks, and Trump’s unorthodox method for rebuffing them, will inflict damage.
Kasich gave Trump all he could handle in early returns in Michigan before fading. His team spun what might turn out to be a third place finish behind Cruz as a victory for its candidate, who has yet to win a single state.
“Our campaign has always said that as the race goes deeper into the calendar and the field narrows, Gov. Kasich’s positive message and proven record will begin to break through,” campaign senior strategist John Weaver wrote in a memo issued to the press. “The outcome in Michigan tonight means our campaign is ahead of schedule.”
Cruz finished a distant second in Mississippi, a state that was originally thought to be among his strongholds based on the conservatism of his politics. But he was battling for second in Michigan, and remains in contention for the nomination, much more so than Kasich or Rubio. Cruz trailed Trump by less than 100 delegates at the outset of the evening, and was poised to win delegates in Michigan and Mississippi.
For Rubio, meanwhile, it was another disappointing night. Rubio was headed toward distant finishes in Michigan and Mississippi that were too low to qualify for delegates in either state, and a third place finish in Idaho. His only hope to turn things around lay with caucus-goers in Hawaii.
“Tonight is what was expected and it doesn’t change the laws of gravity in this race, if Trump loses both Ohio and Florida it’s going to be very hard for him to get his 1,237 before Cleveland. If he wins both, the window to stop him gets narrow,” Republican strategist Brad Todd said. “It’s all about next Tuesday.”
Four states were in play for Republicans Tuesday, a crucial test for the four remaining candidates seeking the GOP presidential nomination, including Hawaii and Idaho.
In Michigan, Kasich appeared to be rising in recent opinion polls, which he must hope foreshadows a surge not just there but also next week in primaries in his home state and Illinois. In Mississippi, Cruz had another opportunity to show both that he’s the strongest challenger to Trump, the front-runner, and that he can perform well in the South, where he has proved unexpectedly weak so far.
In Hawaii and Idaho, Rubio — who has struggled to live up to high expectations — can show that he’s still viable. Rubio was not expected to win these states but they are his best chance to generate momentum and avoid another crushing round of losses and bad press before next Tuesday’s make-or-break primary in his home state. Rubio won Puerto Rico on Sunday, but his only other victory was in Minnesota, on Super Tuesday.
Trump’s success in Michigan and Mississippi sets up a major battle for Florida and Ohio, states that award their GOP delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Trump victories in Florida, over Rubio, and Ohio, over Kasich, could put Trump on a glide path to the nomination. Losses there could make it difficult for Trump to win 1,237 delegates ahead of the Republican convention in Cleveland in July, setting up the first contested nomination gathering in four decades.
In all four states, the big question is, can anyone stop Trump? The New York businessman is the clear front-runner for the nomination, with the most states and the most delegates won. Losses Tuesday could suggest vulnerabilities and would keep alive the hopes of his rivals and the party establishment that he can be prevented from running away with the party and its nomination.
“Michigan is expected to be a Trump victory. The intriguing question is whether Cruz or Kasich finishes second,” said Thaddeus McCotter, a former Republican congressman from Detroit. “If Kasich does, he’d further his immediate goal of eclipsing Rubio and turning this into a three way primary by March 16th.”
For the Democrats, the front-runner, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, and socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, squared off in Michigan and Mississippi. CNN projected that Clinton would win Mississippi within seconds of the polls closing there, continuing her southern sweep. Polls were due to close at 8 p.m. in Mississippi; 9 p.m. in Michigan; 11 p.m. in Idaho and 1 a.m. in Hawaii, all times Eastern Standard. The next round of voting comes in one week, when the winner-take-all delegate states of Florida and Ohio head to the polls.
As voting concludes in Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi, 150 delegates to the Republicans’ July nominating convention in Cleveland, to be awarded proportionally, are up for grabs. This is enough to alter the complexion of the primary contest. Heading into Tuesday’s three primaries and the Hawaii caucus, Trump led the field with 384, to 300 for Cruz, 151 for Rubio and 37 for Kasich. The magic number to clinch the nomination is 1,237 delegates.
Kasich had surged in Michigan, but still trailed Trump in the RealClearPolitics.com average, 37.3 percent to 25 percent. The state’s tough economy and diminished automobile industry has created an atmosphere ripe for Trump’s message of trade protectionism returning high-paying manufacturing jobs from overseas.
Voters looking for an alternative have gravitated toward Kasich, who for months has avoided attacking Trump and has instead cultivated an image of sober executive experience. Cruz and Rubio have attacked Trump, but Kasich has been winning the battle of late breaking voters, taking 35 percent of them compared to Trump’s 23 percent.
In Mississippi, the battle is between Trump and Cruz. Polling was scarce, but the real estate mogul is presumed to have the advantage. Cruz enjoys the support of both establishment and insurgent Republicans, having been endorsed by both Gov. Phil Bryant and failed 2014 GOP Senate candidate Chris McDaniel. Cruz is looking to close strongly here, the way he did in neighboring Louisiana on Saturday.
Trump won Louisiana, but Cruz’s dominance with late deciding voters is something to watch for again on Tuesday to see if Trump’s lock on voters is beginning to crack. But only 26 percent of Mississippi GOP voters made up their mind in the last few days, according to exit polls; 74 picked a candidate earlier.
“I’ve felt like Cruz will get close to within 8 to 10 percentage points of Trump, which is a good job by him, and I think Kasich will beat Rubio,” said Austin Barbour, a Republican operative in Mississippi.
The least predictable contests of the evening are in Hawaii and Idaho. There has been little polling in each of these states, and Aloha State Republicans are caucusing, not voting in a traditional primary election, making prognosticating even more difficult.
Rubio visited Idaho this past weekend in an effort to pull out a good showing at least somewhere. That could matter to voters in a state that isn’t often contested in presidential primaries. The Floridian is supported by Sen. Jim Risch and few other notable Idahoans, and the state’s demographics could work in his favor. The Idaho Statesman reports that early and absentee ballot requests has been low.
In Hawaii, Rubio has received the endorsement of former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona.
The senator sent Rick Santorum to Hawaii to work the caucuses. The former Pennsylvania senator and 2012 presidential candidate endorsed Rubio after ending his 2016 White House bid. As is typically the case, there has been little attention paid to Hawaii. But on Tuesday it featured one of the more talked about stories. The Honolulu Civil Beat reported that Cruz supporters there circulated a CNN report suggesting Rubio was poised to exit the race. The Rubio campaign cried foul, saying Cruz was playing dirty.
