With Democrat Hillary Clinton poised to become the first woman to lead a major party’s presidential ticket, the Republicans could feel compelled to draft a female running mate to join their eventual nominee, almost assuredly a man.
The problem is, the GOP’s otherwise talented pool of rising and influential political figures is somewhat light on women whose resume and experience would prepare them for a grueling campaign and provide confidence to the voters that they are qualified to be one heartbeat away from the presidency. “It’s not a very deep bench, unfortunately,” a female Republican political operative lamented.
But the bench is hardly empty, and is arguably just as crowded, if not more so, than the number of female Democrats who would make plausible vice presidents if Clinton, a former first lady, ex-New York Senator and President Obama’s former secretary of state, weren’t her party’s presumptive White House nominee. The Republicans also boast a female presidential candidate, but Carly Fiorina is considered a heavy underdog to win the nomination.
Republican operatives interviewed for this story requested anonymity in order to speak candidly and avoid alienating female GOP officials who might view themselves as running mate material. But they tended to agree on who the potential vice presidential picks are — and they number no more than six. The top five mentions were:
New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte: The 46 year-old lawmaker has focused on national security during her freshman term and gets high marks for likability, political acumen and policy fluency. Downside: She’s a first-term senator with minimal executive experience and running for re-election to the Senate.
Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina: The former Hewlett Packard CEO, 60, has performed phenomenally on the trail and drawn notice from GOP primary voters. She’s proven adept at discussing domestic and foreign policy despite her political inexperience. Downside: She’s never served in elected office and lost her only general election campaign to Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., in 2010.
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley: The 43 year-old chief executive brings plenty of governing experience to the table, and is well-versed on a range of important kitchen table issues that governors have to deal with, such as education. Downside: She’s had an adversarial relationship with her state’s Republican-controlled legislature and lacks foreign policy experience.
New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez: Considered among the brightest stars in the Republican Party, male or female, Martinez, 55, has succeeded politically in a state dominated by Democrats without positioning herself as a centrist. She’s a gifted communicator and a talented political tactician who knows when to get tough and cut a deal. She’s also Hispanic and a former Democrat. Downside: No experience in international affairs in an election that could be dominated by overseas issues.
Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin: In her second term, the 60 year-old Fallin has a well-rounded resume, including a career in the private sector before entering politics and climbing a ladder that included stops in the Oklahoma House of Representatives, Congress, and lieutenant governor. Downside: Lacks foreign policy experience and has presided over a state that is so conservative, Obama lost every county in 2008 and 2012.
For Republicans with memories of 2008, picking a woman simply to diversify the ticket or generate excitement is verboten.
In that contest, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, plucked then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin from obscurity to serve as his running mate. After beginning the campaign with a positive bang with a pitch perfect nomination acceptance speech at the GOP convention in St. Paul, Minn., Palin stumbled under pressure. Ultimately, she wasn’t prepared to spar with an aggressive national press corps, or discuss domestic and foreign policy issues in depth.
Some Republican strategists are less concerned about Clinton’s impact on the crucial female vote — women tend to vote in greater numbers than men and in 2008 and 2012 they sided with Obama by significant margins. However, there is a pretty broad consensus that “two older white men” leading the Republicans in 2016 could result in disaster.
“Hillary is viewed more as a politician than a woman, so it’s not imperative for the GOP to ensure there is a woman on the ticket,” one male GOP operative said. “That said, it would clearly help if they had a non-older white male on the ticket with the GOP nominee, which could be a woman or a minority. Offering a ticket with two older white men is not a recipe for success.”
It’s possible that the Republican nominee could be young and a minority. Among the announced and unofficial candidates, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is 43 and Hispanic; Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is 44 and Hispanic; Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is 47; Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana is 43 and Indian; and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 63, is African American.
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an advisor to Scott Walker.
