Carly Fiorina’s post-debate surge to the top tier of the Republican presidential field has faded just as quickly as it came.
The former business executive shot to second place after taking Republican front-runner Donald Trump to task and flaunting her foreign policy chops during the CNN debate in mid-September. And her invitation to participate in the second prime-time debate was fueled, in part, by a standout performance in the “happy hour” event preceding the first Republican debate.
But two polls released this week, one showing Fiorina dropping from her post-debate position at 15 percent to seventh place at 4 percent and the other placing her in sixth place behind establishment favorite Jeb Bush, have some strategists wondering whether her inimitable debate performances are evidence she’s a one-trick pony.
“It’s like once she has these great debates, her campaign isn’t able to harness the news cycle and really expand her and make her look presidential,” explains Ford O’Connell, a political strategist and former adviser to the 2008 McCain-Palin campaign.
“The worse she does in debates, the worse off her campaign is going to be because that’s been her top strength thus far,” he told the Washington Examiner.
Fiorina’s sharp performance in the second debate also triggered an onslaught of attacks from Democrats about her failed bid for a California Senate seat in 2010, unwavering criticism of Planned Parenthood, and layoffs she oversaw during her six-year tenure as chief executive of Hewlett-Packard.
In an email dated Sept. 24, just over a week after the CNN debate, the Democratic National Committee asked its supporters if “Carly Fiorina’s corporate record will be more of a liability than Mitt Romney’s was in 2012.” The email also linked to several pieces accusing Fiorina of misleading Americans on her business record and Planned Parenthood.
The attacks forced the female GOP hopeful to respond with answers that “wouldn’t fit on bumper stickers,” said O’Connell, who also noted that her “laser-like approach” on Planned Parenthood during the debate provided easy soundbites to her Democratic opponents.
One of those soundbites came from Fiorina daring Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and President Obama to watch a series of undercover videos depicting Planned Parenthood officials negotiating prices for fetal body part that were released over the summer.
“I dare Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to watch these tapes. Watch a fully formed fetus on the table, its heart beating, its legs kicking while someone says we have to keep it alive to harvest its brain,” she said at the time.
“Part of me wondered, ‘Why aren’t you casting yourself on an array of issues as a presidential candidate?'” O’Connell said.
A top campaign aide expressed little concern over Fiorina’s sharp decline in the polls and said her visits to early voting states after the second debate indicate where the campaign’s focus lies.
“We’ve never put much stock in national numbers,” the aide told the Examiner after requesting anonymity. “Look at Iowa and New Hampshire and other early state polling and you’ll see where our priorities are.”
“Just in the month after the debate, Carly has held public events during three trips to South Carolina, two trips to Iowa and Texas, and one trip each to New Hampshire, Michigan, and Idaho,” the aide added.
Fiorina did take a one-week break from public campaign appearances between Oct. 6-13, during which she attended private fundraisers in Virginia, Pennsylvania and California. And her public calendar currently lists no public appearances in the five days leading up to the third debate on Oct. 28.
Earning the title of “winner” during the third debate will be more of an uphill battle for Fiorina this time around, says Washington lobbyist Ken Kies.
“The 24 hours leading up to these debates now becomes a 24-hour news cycle and all [the media] talks about is the debate,” Kies told the Examiner. “In that 24 hours leading up to the debate, I guarantee 20 percent or more of the jabbering by the pundits will be, ‘Can Carly replicate what she did in the last debate?’ which virtually guarantees she cannot replicate it.”
“If people are talking about that for 24 hours, it’s going to be nearly impossible for her to accomplish,” he added.
Should Fiorina falter in the third debate or fail to satisfy the media narrative Kies has predicted will take form ahead of the debate, O’Connell says she could risk losing any chance she has at recovering her position in the top tier.
“Debates are her strength, and right now, losing that could be catastrophic,” he said.
