Though Republicans have the wind at their backs, it’s still too early to say whether they’ll win control of the Senate because many races won’t break decisively until the last minute.
Experienced political observers say that even in wave years, the public doesn’t make up its mind until the last minute and many key races may still be close.
“Even though we expect Republicans to win many important races, it doesn’t mean they’re going to win them by 10 points, they might win them by just enough to matter,” said Nathan L. Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. “These competitive races tend to be very close contests.”
He and others point to past years that in hindsight were obvious tidal waves for Democratic Senate candidates: 2006 and 2008.
President George W. Bush’s unpopularity in 2006, public disapproval of the Iraq war he championed and voter fatigue with a Republican-led Congress contributed to big Democratic victories that were increasingly easy to predict by the end of September of that year. In 2008, continuing dissatisfaction with Bush and the GOP led to another easily predicted Democratic wave election.
But in each of those elections, an half-dozen incumbent Republican senators put up valiant fights and were hardly as easy to dislodge as might be assumed.
That’s why late September is too early to decide that the Republicans have failed to capitalize on a favorable Senate map and political tailwinds this year. The GOP has to flip a net of six Democratic-held seats to win the Senate majority.
The Democrats flipped six Republican-held seats in 2006, the exact number they needed to capture the Senate majority. They knocked off three GOP incumbents with ease, in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, respectively. But these three races went down the wire, with the winning Democrat failing to garner 50 percent of the vote:
Missouri
Democrat Claire McCaskill: 49.6 percent
Incumbent Republican Jim Talent: 47.3 percent
Montana
Democrat Jon Tester: 49.2 percent
Incumbent Republican Conrad Burns: 48.3 percent
Virginia
Democrat Jim Webb: 49.6 percent
Incumbent Republican George Allen: 49.2 percent
In 2008, the Democrats added to their narrow 51-49 majority, picking up eight more GOP-held Senate seats.
This wave included five easy victories. But three of the contests were nail-biters, including in two blue states with strong coattails from the Democratic presidential nominee, then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. And like the three tight races from 2006, the winning Democrats failed to crack 50 percent:
Minnesota
Democrat Al Franken: 41.99 percent
Incumbent Republican Norm Coleman: 41.98 percent
Oregon
Democrat Jeff Merkley: 48.9 percent
Incumbent Republican Gordon Smith: 45.6 percent
Alaska
Democrat Mark Begich: 47.8 percent
Incumbent Republican Ted Stevens: 46.6 percent
