Republicans’ chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate have increased to 61 percent from 58 percent, according to a prominent data-driven forecast.
The updated projection is based on the second wave of data from the Battleground Tracker poll from the New York Times, CBS News and YouGov.
“The Senate battleground remains broad and competitive, with 10 races within six percentage points,” Nate Cohn writes for the NYT’s The Upshot blog.
“The results nonetheless suggest that Republicans, who received good news in Alaska, hold an advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. They hold at least a nominal lead in eight states held by Democrats, more than the six they need to retake the chamber.”
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight just last week estimated that Republicans have a 64 percent chance of retaking the Senate.
Still marked as tossups by the Upshot are North Carolina’s Kay Hagan/Thom Tillis race, the Joni Ernst/Bruce Braley contest in Iowa, and the Mark Begich/Dan Sullivan fight in ever-unpredictable Alaska.
