Top economists are split on the question of whether a federal $15 hourly minimum wage would hurt employment, but they agree it wouldn’t boost the overall size of the U.S. economy.
A poll of high-profile economists conducted by the IGM Forum at the University of Chicago found that a plurality were uncertain whether a $15 minimum wage phased in by 2020 would hurt employment. Of those asked, 26 percent said low-wage employment would be “substantially lower,” while 24 percent disagreed.
While not a scientific poll, the forum provides some insight into how top academics in the field of economics view a policy idea that has become increasingly popular on the Left.
Some cities, such as Seattle and Los Angeles, have passed laws setting local minimum wages at $15. Union-backed activists have pushed for similar measures at the state level in New York and elsewhere. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, a Vermont senator, has backed a $15 federal minimum wage.
But some economists believe that such a law would eliminate many jobs.
Steven Kaplan, a professor at the University of Chicago, wrote that a “$15 minimum wage rise makes entry level / low wage jobs very expensive. It would move the U.S. to be more like France, Italy, etc.”
Others disagreed, however. David Autor, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, responded that “I don’t think the evidence supports the bold prediction that employment will be substantially lower. Not impossible, but no strong evidence.”
The economists polled were less conflicted about whether the much higher minimum wage would boost total economic output. The majority responded that it would not.
Any hike in the minimum wage at the federal level is likely to run into resistance from congressional Republicans and industries that employ many low-wage workers, such as the restaurant industry.
President Obama has stopped well short of advocating a $15 minimum wage, only recently supporting a hike in the federal wage floor to $12 by 2020.
Obama’s own economic advisers have argued that most recent econometric studies show only small or no negative effects on employment from small increases in the minimum wage.
