The Pentagon and commanders in Iraq are eyeing the spring of 2008 as the time to begin a drawdown of American troops if the surge is working.
Much of Washington’s attention has focused on this September, when Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, will give a report card to Congress on the five-month-old counteroffensive to secure greater Baghdad.
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But defense sources tell The Examiner they do not expect Petraeus’ report to trigger an immediate reduction in the 158,000 troops now in Iraq. Instead, he is expected to cite advances but caution that more time is needed before a decision is made about troop levels.
Spring is a key time frame for two reasons, according to Pentagon officials and an adviser to Petraeus.
Nearly all of the 20 Army combat brigade teams are set to leave Iraq between January and June 2008 after fulfilling 15-month deployments. Officials say the schedule creates an opportunity to draw down forces by not replacing some of them, in the process easing the pressure on the badly stretched Army.
“By definition, a ‘surge’ is not permanent,” an Army source at the Pentagon said. “At some point, it has to end.”
The second reason is that by next year, commanders expect Iraqi security forces to be able to operate solo in a significant number of Baghdad’s 474 neighborhoods, making the drawdown feasible from a military standpoint.
“You could see us begin to return to pre-surge numbers in the spring of ‘08,” said retired Army Gen. John Keane, a Petraeus adviser. Pre-surge levels would bring the force to about 128,000.
The White House argues the surge needs time to work. The last of five new Army brigades arrived in Baghdad just a few weeks ago.
But Democrats, and some Republicans who fear more congressional losses in the 2008 election, want to force President Bush to start bringing out troops now.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Mich., said Tuesday he was backing an amendment to a pending Pentagon budget bill that would dictate a phased withdrawal this fall and an end to combat missions by April. April is about the time the Pentagon would like to begin a drawdown if the surge works.
“The open-ended occupation of a Muslim country by the West has played right into the hands of al Qaeda, and we need to bring it to a responsible end,” Levin said.
