Donald Trump has large leads in new polls of Alabama and Oklahoma while a majority of Republican voters in both states remain not completely decided ahead of Tuesday’s primaries.
Monmouth University polls of Alabama and Oklahoma show little more than four-in-ten of those surveyed are completely decided, but the rest have yet to fully make up their minds. The indecision appears to benefit Trump.
In Alabama, Trump leads with 42 percent of likely GOP voters, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 19 percentage points, 16 points for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 11 percent for Ben Carson, and five points for John Kasich.
Monmouth University’s polling shows Trump on pace to earn anywhere from 60 to 85 percent of Alabama’s delegates. Trump’s lead appears to be bolstered by the recent endorsement of Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, an immigration hawk whose brand of populism Trump favors.
In Oklahoma, Trump has a smaller edge. Trump finished first with the support of 35 percent of likely voters, followed by Cruz at 23 percentage points, Rubio at 22 points, and Kasich and Carson polling in the single digits. Trump appears to be on pace to win 40 percent of Oklahoma’s delegates, while Cruz and Rubio would split the remaining delegates, according to Monmouth.
“There is an outside chance that only Trump ends up meeting the [20 percentage point] delegate threshold in Alabama, but even if Rubio and Cruz qualify, it’s looks like Trump could easily rack up the vast majority of delegates awarded by these two states,” said Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University’s polling institute.
Cruz has focused on Texas and its neighboring states ahead of Tuesday’s primary, and held three events in Oklahoma on Sunday. A loss in Oklahoma would be disappointing for Cruz, who has pledged that, “we will compete in and win the Sooner State.”
Monmouth University surveyed likely GOP voters numbering 450 in Alabama and 403 in Oklahoma by telephone from Feb. 25 to 28. The Alabama survey had a 4.6 percentage point margin of error and the Oklahoma poll includes a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.
