President Obama’s push for a “big deal” to curb the deficit is all but assured of failing, which will have consequences for politicians in both parties courting independent voters turned off by government spending, analysts said. After a week of meetings with congressional leaders, officials involved in negotiations acknowledge that Obama’s push for a $4 trillion package of spending cuts and tax increases over the next decade has no chance of passing the Republican-controlled House. Instead, leaders on both sides of the aisle are working behind the scenes on a fallback option that at a minimum would raise the debt ceiling and avoid the prospect of governmentdefault.
A grand deal fell apart when Republicans refused to include tax increases and Democrats balked over reductions in entitlement benefits without additional revenue.
Regardless of the scope of a deal, some say that Obama owns the political high ground simply because he showed a willingness to compromise in the face of economic catastrophe.
“Obama won the adult-in-the-room argument,” said Lincoln Mitchell, ofColumbia University’s Harriman Institute. “You can’t run around saying thatcutting the deficit is your most important issue and then refuse anything with a one-penny tax increase.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. has proposed allowing Obama to raise the debt ceiling without requiring spending cuts. If Obama assumes that role, he could also be forced to absorb the brunt of criticism from voters still wary of raising the nation’s $14.3 trillion borrowing limit less than three weeks before the Aug. 2 deadline. Obama, for the first time, directly acknowledged the political implications of an impasse that has consumed Washington for weeks while much of the nation stands by in bewilderment. Despite criticizing Republicans for injecting politics into the debate, thepresident predicted the public would reward a candidate who is “trying to
But Republicans continue to castigate Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal,saying the president’s policies created an explosion in the deficit. And Obama is facing another potential challenge to this 2012 campaign, a revolt by liberals. Many progressives are furious that Obama put cuts to Medicare and Social Security on the table, and some liberal groups have vowed to pull support from his campaign if such reductions are included in a deal.
Without a primary challenge from the left and virtually no chance of broad entitlement changes included in a final agreement, Mitchell predicted Obama would minimize blowback from his base while gainingsupport from wavering independent voters. But others say independents want concrete cuts in the deficit and a reversal of federal goverment expansion and care less about who scored points during the arcane debt ceiling debate.
“Big deal or small deal it’s all about results for independents,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. “If people feel better about the economy and direction of the country by next summer then Obama will have a much better chance at winning back independents,” he said. “If the economy is still sputtering next year, Obama’s actions this year won’t matter all that much.”
