Though majorities in both chambers are expected to vote to disapprove of President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran in September, opponents no longer can overcome an expected veto from President Obama, clearing a path for the deal to go into effect.
Republican leaders who control both chambers can count on majorities in their caucuses to adopt a resolution of disapproval and send it to Obama. But Democrats are the key to whether Congress can sink Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement by permanently barring him from waiving sanctions enacted into U.S. law.
Lawmakers have until Sept. 17 to approve or disapprove of the deal. If they pass a measure to disapprove, Obama has said he will veto the measure. Congress will then have to muster enough votes to override a veto. On Sept. 2, Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., became the 34th senator to support the Iran deal, making a veto override impossible in the upper chamber. The number of Senate supporters stands at 38.
All 54 Senate Republicans are expected to vote to disapprove, along with three Democrats: Bob Menendez of New Jersey, Chuck Schumer of New York and Ben Cardin of Maryland.
On the House side, Republicans already have enough votes to adopt a resolution to disapprove, but 290 votes would be needed to override an Obama veto.
Assuming all 246 Republicans members vote to disapprove, they would need the support of 44 Democrats to overturn a veto. More than 100 Democrats have yet to declare their intentions.
Here’s a list of some key undeclared members to watch:
Senate Democrats:
• Richard Blumenthal (Conn.) — Blumenthal is one of several Jewish and conservative senators who have been skeptical of the deal as it has taken shape, and was one of eight Democrats who co-sponsored tougher sanctions legislation authored by Menendez and Mark Kirk, R-Ill., this year.
• Maria Cantwell (Wash.) — Murray’s support for the deal could sway her vote.
• Joe Manchin (W.Va.) — The conservative former West Virginia governor also co-sponsored the Kirk-Menendez bill, but told CBS he’s “leaning strongly” toward approving it.
• Gary Peters (Mich.) — Peters was an early supporter of the Kirk-Menendez sanctions legislation.
• Ron Wyden (Ore.) — Wyden was not happy that the Obama administration sought U.N. Security Council approval of the deal before taking it to Congress. Still, he says he’s weighing the benefits of diplomacy against the risk of giving Iran a financial windfall from sanctions relief.
House
Republicans:
• Walter Jones (N.C.) — Jones, a senior member of the Armed Services Committee who long ago soured on U.S. interventions in the Middle East, has supported the administration’s approach to negotiate a deal with Iran, but also voted for a law enacted in May to ensure Congress gets a chance to review it.
Democrats:
• Brad Ashford (Neb.) — One of several freshman lawmakers who recently visited Israel, Ashford told the Omaha World-Herald after returning that he’s leaning against the deal.
• Susan Davis (Calif.) — Davis is also a senior member of the Armed Services Committee and one of the most prominent Jewish Democrats who is still undecided.
• Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) — An Iraq war veteran, Gabbard hasn’t been shy about criticizing the administration’s policies in the Middle East. She said July 29 that she needs to know more about what rejecting the deal would do for U.S. interests.
• Steny Hoyer (Md.) — The House Democratic whip said Aug. 10 he still hasn’t made up his mind, but has been critical of the deal.
• Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.) — She’s challenging Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain for his seat in a conservative-leaning state.
• Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.) — The chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee wouldn’t commit to supporting the deal before lawmakers left town last month, saying she wanted to hear what constituents in her heavily Jewish district had to say.
• Loretta Sanchez (Calif.) — Sanchez, a senior member of the Armed Services Committee, is seeking a Senate seat in California and has been skeptical of the deal.
