It’s Super Tuesday, the biggest day yet for the Republican presidential contenders, with 437 delegates up for grabs in 10 states and, many Republican leaders hope, a chance for Mitt Romney to finally clear the path to the party’s nomination.
At the top of Romney’s to-do list is a win in Ohio, a swing state with 66 convention delegates that is widely seen as the day’s top prize. Yet, while Romney had gained considerable ground in recent weeks following five straight primary victories, he remains in a virtual dead heat in Ohio with Rick Santorum, the candidate favored by conservatives.
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Beyond Ohio, political experts say Romney has the chance on Tuesday to win enough delegates to convincingly distance himself from his three remaining rivals.
Romney is expected to dominate Massachusetts, where he served as governor, and neighboring Vermont. He also could sweep Idaho, where he leads in the polls, and walk away from Virginia — where he and Rep. Ron Paul are the only candidates on the ballot — with dozens of additional delegates.
A successful day for Romney could prompt more conservatives and Republican leaders to fall in behind him, strengthening his chances of securing the nomination and ending a bruising nominating contest that threatens to go on much longer than many had expected.
“If Romney comes out of Super Tuesday with more than 50 percent of the delegates allotted so far, then I think there is going to be a lot of movement on the part of elected officials and Republicans around the country to rally behind Romney and try to shut this thing down,” said pollster Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group.
None of Romney’s remaining rivals has signaled any intention of dropping out of the race anytime soon, and political strategists note that Romney is still far from securing the 1,144 delegates he needs to lock down the nomination.
“Even if Romney does really well [Tuesday], he will still be only a third of the way on the delegate count,” Democratic political strategist Mary Anne Marsh said.
Tennessee, like Ohio, is too close to call, though the outcome there is more critical to Santorum than Romney. With a win in Tennessee, Santorum can claim that he has a far better chance of carrying the critical South than Romney. A loss, however, would mean “the path is blocked” for Santorum to take the nomination, Faucheux said.
“Santorum really needs to break this race open,” he said. “The burden is now back on him to show he can win some big states.”
Though Georgia is actually the largest prize of the day with 76 convention delegates, the field has pretty much accepted that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a longtime Peach State congressman, has the state locked up. They also concede that Gingrich is likely to take delegates away from Santorum and Romney in two other Southern states, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
Paul, the Texas congressman who has attracted the most enthusiastic following in the race, is expected to fare poorly on Super Tuesday. Paul campaigned Monday in Idaho, which offers him the best chance of finally winning a nominating contest. Paul trails Romney in recent polls, but won the state’s GOP straw poll earlier this year.
