Outside experts are returning to Washington from tours of Iraq with sharply different views on a critical question: Is al Qaeda being defeated?
Pro-surge analysts contend al Qaeda is on its heels and desperate in the face of a six-month-old U.S. troop reinforcement.
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But Anthony H. Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, offered a gloomy assessment.
“Al Qaeda is far from defeated. It still has major support from some tribes, and significant al Qaeda operating areas exist,” Cordesman said. The struggle against al Qaeda has become perhaps the most important military objective in Iraq. The outcome will likely determine whether warring sects can reconcile and whether U.S. troops can start coming home next year.
Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, has called al Qaeda his No. 1 enemy, with its suicide bombers conducting most, if not all, mass casualty attacks that stir up sectarian violence. While the U.S. command has trumpeted the killing and capturing of scores of al Qaeda leaders this summer, Cordesman concluded, “Al Qaeda continues to show considerable resilience in rebuilding its leadership and key cadres.”
As if to underscore Cordesman’s analysis, al Qaeda struck this week in what may turn out to be its most deadly coordinated attack of the war. Four massive truck bombs exploded in three Iraq villages near the Syrian border. The death toll may reach 500.
Cordesman’s evaluation conflicts with the conclusions of surge proponents who also toured Iraq this summer.
“My general assessment is that al Qaeda in Iraq has been very badly hurt both by our aggressive operations against it and because the Sunni Arab population is increasingly turning against it and not only denying it safe havens, but actively fighting against it,” Frederick W. Kagan, a military historian at the American Enterprise Institute, told The Examiner on Thursday.
“I think that we are within sight of defeating this organization in Iraq if we continue to press, but it will be able to conduct periodic spectacular attacks for a long time to come,” he said. Cordesman conceded that the six-month surge of five U.S. Army brigades and 30,000 extra Iraqi troops in Baghdad “did enable [the coalition] to make some gains against al Qaeda.”
Most analysts also agree that Anbar province, once the most restive Sunni area in Iraq, has become one of the quietest, as Sunni tribal leaders end an alliance with al Qaeda and join the coalition. Attacks in its two largest cities — Ramadi and Fallujah — are down sharply.
