BOULDER, Colo. — Amid raised stakes and dwindling opportunities to break through, the Republican presidential contenders on Wednesday were set to meet for their third televised debate.
The CNBC cablecast is the first to focus exclusively on pocketbook issues, the voters’ No. 1 priority, further increasing the pressure with less than 100 days to go until the first GOP votes are cast in Iowa. With a crowded, prime time debate stage threatening to limit airtime, the Republicans have little room for error, their delicate task being one of projecting empathy with an economically insecure electorate while also offering concrete solutions.
“They won’t believe you have a plan if they don’t believe you care,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz told the Washington Examiner.
As Fox News did in August and CNN last month, financial news network CNBC is broadcasting two debates from the University of Colorado’s Coors Events Center, to account for the crowded GOP field. Four major contenders polling below an average of 3 percent nationally have been invited to face off at 6 p.m. Eastern Time. The 10 polling highest take the stage two hours later for a debate that is supposed to last 120 minutes.
The event is hitting at a crucial period of the campaign, contributing to the sense of urgency for front-runners and underperformers alike.
The first two televised debates occurred in earlier stages of the campaign, when the contours of the race were unclear and the possibilities for advancement seemingly more equal. The game in Cleveland and Simi Valley, Calif., was about managing expectations and playing for political field position. In Boulder, just north of Denver in this key general election battleground state, debate No. 3 kicks off the zero sum portion of 2016.
There are more likely to be clear winners and losers coming out of Wednesday evening, than lateral advancers, as voters pay closer attention to their choices and every day gone is one less opportunity for candidates in trouble to reverse their fortunes. Just ask Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the one-time front-runner that exited the race five days after a lackluster though hardly horrible performance in the last debate.
“The time for lowering expectations is over,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who advised 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. “Instead, campaigns have to look to beat expectations. Gov. Walker could attest to that.”
On the hot seat is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, battling perceptions that he’s stuck in the middle of the pack, perhaps permanently, in the wake of a decision to slash campaign staff and infrastructure following disappointing third quarter fundraising numbers for a candidate who whose presidential bid was built on its supposed financial prowess. But Bush isn’t the only struggling candidate who will be under the microscope of donors, grassroots activists and voters on CNBC.
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky faces questions about whether he’s on the verge of dropping out; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses has stalled out in the Hawkeye State; ex-CEO Carly Fiorina, the star of debates one and two, has given back much of her polling gains since a late September spike; and Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey and John Kasich of Ohio are still waiting for their breakout moment.
Front-runners Donald Trump and Ben Carson, ranked one-two in the Examiner’s presidential power rankings, have their own challenges, as do Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida, the candidates positioned to take their places if they falter.
Trump, the New York billionaire businessman and reality television star still leads nationally and in most early primary states. But he has proven vulnerable when the focus moves to policy and governing and beyond his personal deal-making skills. Carson, the retired pediatric neurosurgeon, recently overtook Trump in Iowa and in a national poll of GOP voters. Can the soft-spoken candidate with a penchant for controversial rhetoric withstand the increased scrutiny headed his way?
“Voters are now beginning to evaluate whether these candidates can do the job of president, and from that standpoint Ben Carson has a lot on the line Wednesday night,” Republican strategist Josh Holmes said. “Unlike the two previous debates, Carson will need to demonstrate strength with a firm enough grasp of the issues where voters can be reasonably assured he’s qualified to be president.”
Cruz and Rubio take the stage as perhaps the most unencumbered of the candidates. The young senators are talented communicators who excelled in the first two debates. They’re viewed as running sharp campaigns that are making steady progress. But neither is in the pole position yet, and both have to assert themselves if they want to continue to build a foundation capable of propelling them into the lead by the time the voting starts on Feb. 1.
“This is all about who wins the first four states,” said Stuart Stevens, a GOP strategist who advised Romney four years ago. “Who is speaking most effectively for Iowa voters? For New Hampshire voters? Who will make specific appeals?”
Economic issues received surprisingly short shrift in the first two debates considering the importance voters place on them when pulling the lever. On that front, strong performances in the CNBC cablecast offers could offer the leading candidates an opportunity to build on and solidify existing leads while giving trailing contenders the chance to turn things around. The risks also are heightened, however.
Mistakes made, or unorthodox positions taken, on low priority issues are often forgiven by the voters. But with public polling showing entrenched unhappiness about the direction of the country and unprecedented sentiment that things aren’t likely to get better for future generations, the candidates who drop the ball on jobs and economy might find it difficult to recover politically given how many choices the voters have in the GOP field.
Luntz said he expects the discussion Wednesday evening to revolve around a discussion about government and how significant a role — or not — it should play in the national economy. Republican pollster David Winston, who surveys these issues extensively, said the key for candidates is to show they care and understand Americans’ economic hardships and worries. Without reassuring voters that they know what they’re going through, the candidates’ detailed plans for resuscitating the economy won’t amount to much.
“The higher the level of abstraction the less effective you are,” Winston said. “It has to be laid out in a much clearer value proposition.”
