Battleground Nevada has been thrown wide open in 2016 with Sen. Harry Reid’s Friday announcement that he would not seek re-election.
The Silver State is contested presidential territory and tough going for both parties in Senate races. Republicans swept Nevada in the 2014 midterm elections, taking control of state government at all levels. But a Democratic political machine built and nurtured by Reid helped President Obama win Nevada twice, while helping the senator survive a tough re-election battle in 2010, a huge wave year for the GOP.
Reid’s exit is likely to diminish the political influence and fundraising prowess of one of the Democratic Party’s shrewdest operators in a key western battleground. It could improve the prospects of the GOP’s eventual presidential nominee there and provide the vulnerable Senate Republican majority with a fresh opportunity to flip a Democratic seat.
“Nevada Democrats just lost their quarterback, coach and team owner, all in one fell swoop,” said a Republican operative based in Nevada.
Open Senate seats tend to attract more interest from potential candidates, though not always. Here’s a look at the initial list of competitors and what they have going for — and against — them at this early stage. The biggest fish in the pond, popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval, is unlikely to run for Senate next year, sources told the Washington Examiner on Friday. Sandoval was re-elected to a second term in November.
• Democrats. With Reid out, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination is former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. She’s Hispanic and female, giving her an advantage over other Democratic aspirants. Other names that will be mentioned include former state assemblywoman Lucy Flores, former Nevada secretary of state Ross Miller and former Rep. Shelley Berkley.
• Republicans. Sources say Sandoval and Sen. Dean Heller are leading the GOP recruiting efforts in the state. Given Nevada’s fractious Republican Party, the primary could end up crowded, with a range of Establishment and Tea Party candidates. Republicans who might run include Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison; former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki; state senate majority leader Michael Roberson; state attorney general Adam Laxalt; and Rep. Joe Heck.
Reid running for re-election would have attracted national attention, as did Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s race in Kentucky last year and Reid’s 2010 contest. The race still will be a major target that draws in a lot of national money. However, it could be fought on a more local-issue terrain rather than as a proxy for control of power in Washington, much like Heller’s squeaker over Berkley in 2012.
Democrats and Republicans issued dueling press releases Friday projecting confidence that the 2016 race would go their way.
“There is a talented pool of Nevada Democrats who are ready to step up to the plate, and we will recruit a top-notch candidate in Nevada who will be successful in holding this seat in 2016,” said Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Countered Ward Baker, executive director of the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee: “With the exception of Reid, every elected statewide official in Nevada is Republican and this race is the top pickup opportunity for the GOP.”
