How much credit does #NeverTrump deserve for Donald Trump’s struggles cobbling together a majority of Republican delegates?
Every setback Trump endures — losses in Iowa, Utah and Wisconsin, for example — is balanced by wins that keep him the clear Republican front-runner. But the man who wrote The Art of the Deal is having trouble closing the deal with GOP voters.
Acknowledging Trump’s success using big rallies and earned media to build his popular appeal and win primaries, Republican strategist Ford O’Connell nevertheless told the Washington Examiner, “[Trump] would have a lot more delegates right now if his organization was better at dotting its I’s and crossing its T’s.”
Since the field has winnowed, Ted Cruz has enjoyed more success capturing delegates at caucuses and state conventions even if he has been unable to come close to overtaking Trump in the official count.
More importantly, if there is a contested convention, Cruz’s influence on the delegate process has ensured that many Republicans in Cleveland who will be formally bound to Trump on the first ballot aren’t actually supporters of the billionaire. So they will become ripe for the picking on subsequent ballots if Trump doesn’t arrive with the necessary 1,237 when voting begins.
The national polls have tightened, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Trump around 39 percent and Cruz not far behind at 32 percent. Trump’s favorable ratings among Republicans appear to be back on the downswing and his general election numbers look worse than Cruz’s.
Some of this is due to anti-Trump activism. Elite conservative opposition to Trump has hardened the closer he gets to the nomination, which is unusual for a candidate in his position. Supporters of other candidates are swallowing their pride and working with Cruz to lock down delegates.
But as long as there is any caginess about whether these Republicans actually support Cruz rather than just opposing Trump and leaving the door open a white knight to claim the nomination, the GOP front-runner can plausibly complain the Tea Party Texas senator is at least an unwitting tool of the establishment.
“It’s a lot easier to build support for someone than against someone,” said Republican strategist Mike DuHaime. “My frustration with a lot of #NeverTrump is that they sat on the sidelines early.”
Some were waiting for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio to emerge rather than Cruz. Others didn’t want to alienate Jeb Bush and other candidates while they were still in the race. DuHaime noted that these influencers are supposed to help build support for candidates, not simply wait for them to get strong enough on their own.
A lot of Trump’s up-and-down campaign can be explained by the calendar. He’s been strong in the Bible belt and the Northeast but struggled in the Great Plains states as well as the caucuses. It’s easy to imagine Trump winning Maine if it had been a primary rather than a caucus, but in Utah it would have made no difference.
New York is a state that is built for Trump. Wisconsin was less so, with a strong suburban white-collar vote and a Republican power structure behind Cruz, led by Wis. Gov. Scott Walker, that was actually respected by conservatives.
But strategic anti-Trump voting has had some successes in preventing votes from being split between Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich in states where the front-runner is vulnerable. And #NeverTrump has been effective at peer pressure.
Some talk about blacklisting Trump supporters in the future. Others notice that Mitt Romney was praised for coming out against Trump while Chris Christie was ridiculed for endorsing him.
“I might have worked for Trump in a paid or volunteer capacity,” one Washington Republican told the Examiner on condition of anonymity. “But I know I’d become persona non grata.” This has limited Trump’s talent pool and deepened his organization’s problems.
In May 2008, Indiana exit polls said 50 percent of Hillary Clinton’s voters would never vote for Barack Obama. So perhaps even #NeverTrump can never say never.
