Top U.S. officials say the Obama administration has no plans to shift its policy toward al Qaeda now that the terrorist organization has a new leader, even while some experts warn that the U.S. is underestimating its enemy. Defense and intelligence leaders describe the new al Qaeda leader, Egyptian surgeon Ayman al-Zawahiri, as disorganized and less charismatic than Osama bin Laden, his predecessor.
“I think he’s got some challenges,” Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last week when al Qaeda announced its new leader. He’s no bin Laden, that’s for sure, Gates said.
“Bin Laden has been the leader of al Qaeda, essentially since its inception,” he said. “In that particular context, he had a peculiar charisma that I think Zawahiri does not have.”
Though Zawahiri has been studying under bin Laden for more than a decade, he has been less “operationally involved” in al Qaeda than bin Laden, and some within the terrorist organization are suspicious of Zawahiri’s Egyptian roots.
Zawahiri may not be as sensational as his predecessor, but he’s ruthless, smart and dangerous, said former CIA officer Bruce Riedel.
“Zawahiri has helped kill hundreds of Americans from East Africa in 1998, to 9/11, to Khost in 2009,” Riedel said. “Underestimating him is a mistake.”
In 2001, Zawahiri wrote a treatise that promised to inflict “as many casualties as possible” on Americans, after his wife and two children were killed in post-9/11 U.S. airstrikes on Afghanistan. He is also believed to have helped organize the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.
Born to a family of doctors and scientists in Egypt, Zawahiri was only 15 when he began his first underground movement against the Egyptian government.
But the Obama administration isn’t too concerned by his violent history. White House officials say al Qaeda is weakening — regardless of who is in charge — with the rise of the Arab Spring, a series of popular uprisings sweeping the Middle East and North Africa.
“It’s neither surprising nor does it change some fundamental facts, which is al Qaeda’s ideology is bankrupt,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said of Zawahiri’s appointment. “The fact is that peaceful movements for change are the future of the region and al Qaeda is the past.”
Even in the Middle East, there is little evidence that Zawahiri’s promotion is making any waves, according to Army Gen. John Toolan Jr., who is on the ground with American troops in Afghanistan.
“I mean, the fact that Osama is gone and we have a new leader of al Qaeda, I think it doesn’t have a major impact on the people that we’re dealing with here in Afghanistan,” Toolan said. “I’m not sure that the al Qaeda organization is really feeding the senior Taliban leadership in Pakistan with guidance on how to prosecute their efforts here. Nor do I think their money is even fueling the insurgency currently in Afghanistan.”
Summing up the administration’s policy toward the new leader, retired Army Gen. David Deptula Jr. said: “The bottom line is ‘So what?’ Al Qaeda has been neutered. We still need to keep them in check, but we are doing just fine with our [current] approaches.”
