President Obama’s bid for a second term is riding, in part, on a Southern state with a Republican governor far more popular with voters than the president. Virginia voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 — the first time the Old Dominion went for a Democratic presidential candidate in 44 years — only to reverse itself a year later when it elected Republican Bob McDonnell governor.
As the national economy continues to drag, however, McDonnell’s approval ratings are rising while Obama’s popularity plummeted in Virginia and now the question is whether the state so critical to Obama’s success in 2008 will be there for him in 2012.
“He really does need Virginia,” said Michael Fauntroy, who teaches civil rights policy and government at George Mason University. “I’m not sure if he loses Virginia if he picks up those electoral votes anywhere else.”
Obama defeated Republican John McCain by 7 percentage points in Virginia, primarily by winning Northern Virginia, the Richmond-Charlottesville area and urban centers in southeastern Hampton Roads, all areas with high concentrations of blacks and young, liberal voters who turned out in record numbers.
In Rep. Bobby Scott’s 3rd Congressional District, the only black-majority district in Virginia, there were 65,000 more votes cast in 2008 than in the 2004 presidential race and 76 percent of that vote went to Obama. Statewide, there were 525,000 more voters in 2008 than four years earlier, most of them young and black voters who turned out to back Obama.
Will those voters even turn out in 2012?
“Not turning out is the same thing as voting for the opponent,” Fauntroy said. “His approval numbers obviously pose a problem and significant challenge. He’s going to need a very large turnout.”
Blacks, in particular, have expressed disappointment with Obama, who in turn, recently told black lawmakers to “quit whining.” Still far more black Virginians — 88 percent in a recent poll — still want to see Obama re-elected, compared with 41 percent of all Virginians.
“The support is still strongly with the president because of the understanding of the enormous challenges he inherited,” said Ray Boone, editor of the Richmond Free-Press, which serves the black community. “But the Democratic Party would make a major mistake if they took the black community for granted.”
Boone said many black voters were heartened to see Obama take a stronger stance against Republicans with his most recent jobs proposal. Fauntroy agreed.
“The biggest frustration I have heard is [blacks] don’t understand why he continues to try to curry favor with Republicans that hate him,” Fauntroy said. “There’s a fundamental frustration with the notion of trying to work with people trying to end your career.”
