A Republican presidential candidate walks into a bar, and the manager tells him, or her, to leave because the room is over capacity and he doesn’t want to get ticketed for violating the fire code.
It reads like a bad joke. But this is the dilemma facing the Republican Party as it prepares for its first presidential debate, scheduled for Aug. 6 in Cleveland. How do you pull off a nationally televised debate with more than a dozen announced candidates when the usual barriers to entry that winnow the field of contenders could do more harm than good?
“We have to set these debates based on the field we have, not on the field we didn’t like in 2012,” said Republican consultant Brad Todd, who is advising a super PAC backing Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s expected presidential campaign. “The debates in 2016 are an opportunity, not a challenge.”
Republican National Committee officials are tight-lipped about their strategy for addressing what in many ways is a good problem for the party to have, telling the Washington Examiner that it’s “a work in progress.” The RNC’s media partners for each debate, who also have a say in how the issue gets worked out, aren’t talking, either.
But while the issues for the networks include logistics and what makes good television, the Republican Party must contend with the major political implications involved and the party’s prospects for success against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
The GOP is hoping to showcase its deep and diverse field of White House candidates precisely as the party is trying to broaden its appeal among women, minorities and younger voters. It can’t do that by excluding candidates such as Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO and only female Republican running for president, or Jindal, an Indian American who is among just a few non-white contenders.
But in mid-May, Fiorina and Jindal were polling only at 1.3 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average, below thresholds that were previously used by both major political parties and their broadcast partners,to keep fringe candidates off the stage. Other contenders polling in the low single digits — but who would seem odd to exclude — include Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
In the last presidential race, the Republicans had another problem. The candidates participated in more than 20 debates. Those televised events were not too crowded and generally went off in an orderly fashion. But they featured candidates who failed to garner much traction on their own and used the debates to energize support for their underdog candidacies. Outside of successful African-American businessman Herman Cain, their presence didn’t add much political value to the party.
That’s why the RNC under Chairman Reince Priebus moved after the 2012 campaign to give the party more control over the debates. Priebus wanted to reduce the number of face-offs and keep the events focused on issues important to Republican primary voters, rather than questions about support for contraception.
Under the new rules, GOP presidential primary debates must be sanctioned by the RNC. The committee now has a direct say in which networks broadcast the events and who the moderators and questioners are. It also will enforce sanctions against any Republican presidential candidate who participates in a non-sanctioned debate. Only nine primary debates have been approved by the RNC, with that number not expected to rise higher than a dozen.
A Republican operative familiar with the RNC rules changes cautioned not to assume that the party didn’t anticipate the potential for a crowded primary and how that would factor into the debates. The source said GOP officials are most likely working through the issue, but are probably sensitive about discussing plans because they are being developed in concert with television networks that have a large stake in the events.
“It was anticipated the entire time that you could have a huge number of people involved in this, so they’re working on this, it’s not a surprise.”
